Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.94%
Fair Odds 2.38
Draw
24.63%
Fair Odds 4.06
Away Win
33.44%
Fair Odds 2.99
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.25% Fair Odds 9.76

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.38 —
Draw 4.06 —
Away Win 2.99 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.25% 9.76
2 2-1 8.76% 11.41
3 1-2 7.84% 12.76
4 2-2 6.7% 14.92
5 1-0 6.7% 14.93
6 0-1 5.99% 16.69
7 2-0 5.73% 17.46
8 3-1 4.99% 20.03
9 0-2 4.58% 21.82
10 1-3 4.0% 25.01
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.92%
25.53
5.99%
16.69
4.58%
21.82
2.34%
42.78
0.89%
111.83
0.27%
365.5
1
6.7%
14.93
10.25%
9.76
7.84%
12.76
4.0%
25.01
1.53%
65.4
0.47%
213.72
2
5.73%
17.46
8.76%
11.41
6.7%
14.92
3.42%
29.26
1.31%
76.49
0.4%
249.94
3
3.26%
30.64
4.99%
20.03
3.82%
26.18
1.95%
51.33
0.75%
134.19
0.23%
438.6
4
1.4%
71.67
2.13%
46.84
1.63%
61.23
0.83%
120.06
0.32%
313.87
0.1%
1025.64
5
0.48%
209.56
0.73%
136.97
0.56%
179.05
0.28%
351.12
0.11%
917.43
0.03%
3003.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.31% · Fair: 76.52
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.91% 18.09%
1.5 50.99% 49.01%
2.5 24.54% 75.46%
3.5 9.47% 90.53%
4.5 3.03% 96.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.35% 21.65%
1.5 45.22% 54.78%
2.5 19.87% 80.13%
3.5 6.95% 93.05%
4.5 2.0% 98.0%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.92% 25.53
1 12.69% 7.88
2 20.56% 4.86
3 22.20% 4.50
4 17.98% 5.56
5+ 22.65% 4.41
Over 2.5 62.84% Under 2.5 37.16%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.94%
Draw 24.63%
Away Win 33.44%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 62.84%
Under 2.5 37.16%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.18%
No 35.82%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.33% 10.71 12.67% 7.89 77.99% 1.28
-1.5 22.01% 4.54 — 77.99% 1.28
-1.0 22.01% 4.54 20.23% 4.94 57.76% 1.73
-0.5 42.24% 2.37 — 57.76% 1.73
0 (PK) 42.24% 2.37 23.17% 4.32 34.6% 2.89
+0.5 65.4% 1.53 — 34.6% 2.89
+1.0 65.4% 1.53 18.1% 5.52 16.5% 6.06
+1.5 83.5% 1.2 — 16.5% 6.06
+2.0 83.5% 1.2 10.14% 9.86 6.35% 15.74

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.