Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.02%
Fair Odds 2.86
Draw
25.82%
Fair Odds 3.87
Away Win
39.16%
Fair Odds 2.55
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.23% Fair Odds 8.9

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.86 —
Draw 3.87 —
Away Win 2.55 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.23% 8.9
2 1-2 8.59% 11.64
3 2-1 8.2% 12.19
4 0-1 7.69% 13.0
5 1-0 7.34% 13.62
6 2-2 6.27% 15.94
7 0-2 5.89% 16.99
8 2-0 5.36% 18.66
9 0-0 5.03% 19.89
10 1-3 4.38% 22.82
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.03%
19.89
7.69%
13.0
5.89%
16.99
3.0%
33.31
1.15%
87.09
0.35%
284.66
1
7.34%
13.62
11.23%
8.9
8.59%
11.64
4.38%
22.82
1.68%
59.65
0.51%
194.93
2
5.36%
18.66
8.2%
12.19
6.27%
15.94
3.2%
31.26
1.22%
81.72
0.37%
267.02
3
2.61%
38.34
3.99%
25.06
3.05%
32.75
1.56%
64.23
0.6%
167.9
0.18%
548.85
4
0.95%
105.03
1.46%
68.65
1.11%
89.74
0.57%
175.96
0.22%
459.98
0.07%
1503.76
5
0.28%
359.71
0.43%
235.13
0.33%
307.31
0.17%
602.77
0.06%
1574.8
0.02%
5154.64
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.88% · Fair: 113.74
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.78% 23.22%
1.5 42.87% 57.13%
2.5 18.12% 81.88%
3.5 6.07% 93.93%
4.5 1.68% 98.32%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.35% 21.65%
1.5 45.22% 54.78%
2.5 19.87% 80.13%
3.5 6.95% 93.05%
4.5 2.0% 98.0%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.03% 19.89
1 15.04% 6.65
2 22.48% 4.45
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.75% 5.97
5+ 18.31% 5.46
Over 2.5 57.46% Under 2.5 42.54%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.02%
Draw 25.82%
Away Win 39.16%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.46%
Under 2.5 42.54%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.15%
No 39.85%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.41% 15.59 10.65% 9.39 82.94% 1.21
-1.5 17.06% 5.86 — 82.94% 1.21
-1.0 17.06% 5.86 19.23% 5.2 63.71% 1.57
-0.5 36.29% 2.76 — 63.71% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.29% 2.76 24.33% 4.11 39.38% 2.54
+0.5 60.62% 1.65 — 39.38% 2.54
+1.0 60.62% 1.65 20.15% 4.96 19.22% 5.2
+1.5 80.78% 1.24 — 19.22% 5.2
+2.0 80.78% 1.24 11.69% 8.55 7.53% 13.28

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.