Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.54%
Fair Odds 2.9
Draw
25.91%
Fair Odds 3.86
Away Win
39.55%
Fair Odds 2.53
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.3% Fair Odds 8.85

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.9 —
Draw 3.86 —
Away Win 2.53 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.3% 8.85
2 1-2 8.65% 11.56
3 2-1 8.14% 12.29
4 0-1 7.85% 12.74
5 1-0 7.39% 13.54
6 2-2 6.23% 16.06
7 0-2 6.0% 16.65
8 2-0 5.32% 18.8
9 0-0 5.13% 19.49
10 1-3 4.41% 22.68
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.13%
19.49
7.85%
12.74
6.0%
16.65
3.06%
32.65
1.17%
85.37
0.36%
279.02
1
7.39%
13.54
11.3%
8.85
8.65%
11.56
4.41%
22.68
1.69%
59.28
0.52%
193.72
2
5.32%
18.8
8.14%
12.29
6.23%
16.06
3.18%
31.5
1.21%
82.34
0.37%
269.11
3
2.55%
39.17
3.91%
25.6
2.99%
33.46
1.52%
65.61
0.58%
171.53
0.18%
560.54
4
0.92%
108.8
1.41%
71.11
1.08%
92.95
0.55%
182.25
0.21%
476.42
0.06%
1557.63
5
0.26%
377.79
0.4%
246.91
0.31%
322.79
0.16%
632.91
0.06%
1655.63
0.02%
5405.41
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.85% · Fair: 117.05
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.35% 21.65%
1.5 45.22% 54.78%
2.5 19.87% 80.13%
3.5 6.95% 93.05%
4.5 2.0% 98.0%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.13% 19.49
1 15.24% 6.56
2 22.63% 4.42
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.63% 6.01
5+ 17.97% 5.56
Over 2.5 57.01% Under 2.5 42.99%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.54%
Draw 25.91%
Away Win 39.55%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.01%
Under 2.5 42.99%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.78%
No 40.22%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.2% 16.12 10.47% 9.55 83.32% 1.2
-1.5 16.68% 6.0 — 83.32% 1.2
-1.0 16.68% 6.0 19.13% 5.23 64.19% 1.56
-0.5 35.81% 2.79 — 64.19% 1.56
0 (PK) 35.81% 2.79 24.41% 4.1 39.78% 2.51
+0.5 60.22% 1.66 — 39.78% 2.51
+1.0 60.22% 1.66 20.32% 4.92 19.46% 5.14
+1.5 80.54% 1.24 — 19.46% 5.14
+2.0 80.54% 1.24 11.83% 8.46 7.63% 13.1

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.