Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.83%
Fair Odds 2.96
Draw
26.03%
Fair Odds 3.84
Away Win
40.14%
Fair Odds 2.49
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.4% Fair Odds 8.77

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.96 —
Draw 3.84 —
Away Win 2.49 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.4% 8.77
2 1-2 8.72% 11.46
3 0-1 8.09% 12.36
4 2-1 8.04% 12.44
5 1-0 7.45% 13.42
6 0-2 6.19% 16.16
7 2-2 6.15% 16.26
8 0-0 5.29% 18.92
9 2-0 5.26% 19.03
10 1-3 4.45% 22.47
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
8.09%
12.36
6.19%
16.16
3.16%
31.69
1.21%
82.84
0.37%
270.71
1
7.45%
13.42
11.4%
8.77
8.72%
11.46
4.45%
22.47
1.7%
58.75
0.52%
192.01
2
5.26%
19.03
8.04%
12.44
6.15%
16.26
3.14%
31.88
1.2%
83.34
0.37%
272.33
3
2.47%
40.49
3.78%
26.46
2.89%
34.59
1.47%
67.82
0.56%
177.34
0.17%
579.37
4
0.87%
114.86
1.33%
75.07
1.02%
98.14
0.52%
192.42
0.2%
503.02
0.06%
1644.74
5
0.25%
407.33
0.38%
266.24
0.29%
347.95
0.15%
682.13
0.06%
1782.53
0.02%
5813.95
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.82% · Fair: 122.13
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.35% 21.65%
1.5 45.22% 54.78%
2.5 19.87% 80.13%
3.5 6.95% 93.05%
4.5 2.0% 98.0%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.48% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.83%
Draw 26.03%
Away Win 40.14%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.22%
No 40.78%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.89% 16.97 10.21% 9.79 83.89% 1.19
-1.5 16.11% 6.21 — 83.89% 1.19
-1.0 16.11% 6.21 18.97% 5.27 64.93% 1.54
-0.5 35.07% 2.85 — 64.93% 1.54
0 (PK) 35.07% 2.85 24.53% 4.08 40.39% 2.48
+0.5 59.61% 1.68 — 40.39% 2.48
+1.0 59.61% 1.68 20.58% 4.86 19.82% 5.05
+1.5 80.18% 1.25 — 19.82% 5.05
+2.0 80.18% 1.25 12.03% 8.32 7.79% 12.84

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.