Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.59%
Fair Odds 2.98
Draw
26.07%
Fair Odds 3.84
Away Win
40.34%
Fair Odds 2.48
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.44% Fair Odds 8.74

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.98 —
Draw 3.84 —
Away Win 2.48 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.44% 8.74
2 1-2 8.75% 11.43
3 0-1 8.17% 12.24
4 2-1 8.01% 12.49
5 1-0 7.48% 13.38
6 0-2 6.25% 16.0
7 2-2 6.12% 16.33
8 0-0 5.34% 18.73
9 2-0 5.23% 19.11
10 1-3 4.46% 22.41
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.34%
18.73
8.17%
12.24
6.25%
16.0
3.19%
31.37
1.22%
82.02
0.37%
268.02
1
7.48%
13.38
11.44%
8.74
8.75%
11.43
4.46%
22.41
1.71%
58.59
0.52%
191.46
2
5.23%
19.11
8.01%
12.49
6.12%
16.33
3.12%
32.01
1.19%
83.7
0.37%
273.52
3
2.44%
40.95
3.74%
26.76
2.86%
34.99
1.46%
68.6
0.56%
179.34
0.17%
586.17
4
0.85%
117.0
1.31%
76.47
1.0%
99.96
0.51%
196.0
0.2%
512.3
0.06%
1675.04
5
0.24%
417.89
0.37%
273.07
0.28%
357.02
0.14%
699.79
0.05%
1831.5
0.02%
5988.02
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.81% · Fair: 123.81
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.34% 24.66%
1.5 40.82% 59.18%
2.5 16.65% 83.35%
3.5 5.37% 94.63%
4.5 1.43% 98.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.35% 21.65%
1.5 45.22% 54.78%
2.5 19.87% 80.13%
3.5 6.95% 93.05%
4.5 2.0% 98.0%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.34% 18.73
1 15.65% 6.39
2 22.92% 4.36
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.40% 6.10
5+ 17.31% 5.78
Over 2.5 56.09% Under 2.5 43.91%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.59%
Draw 26.07%
Away Win 40.34%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.09%
Under 2.5 43.91%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.03%
No 40.97%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.79% 17.27 10.13% 9.88 84.08% 1.19
-1.5 15.92% 6.28 — 84.08% 1.19
-1.0 15.92% 6.28 18.91% 5.29 65.17% 1.53
-0.5 34.83% 2.87 — 65.17% 1.53
0 (PK) 34.83% 2.87 24.57% 4.07 40.6% 2.46
+0.5 59.4% 1.68 — 40.6% 2.46
+1.0 59.4% 1.68 20.67% 4.84 19.94% 5.02
+1.5 80.06% 1.25 — 19.94% 5.02
+2.0 80.06% 1.25 12.09% 8.27 7.84% 12.75

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.