Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.91%
Fair Odds 3.13
Draw
26.34%
Fair Odds 3.8
Away Win
41.75%
Fair Odds 2.39
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.65% Fair Odds 8.58

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.13 —
Draw 3.8 —
Away Win 2.39 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.65% 8.58
2 1-2 8.91% 11.22
3 0-1 8.76% 11.41
4 2-1 7.75% 12.9
5 1-0 7.62% 13.13
6 0-2 6.7% 14.92
7 2-2 5.93% 16.87
8 0-0 5.73% 17.46
9 2-0 5.07% 19.74
10 1-3 4.55% 21.99
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.73%
17.46
8.76%
11.41
6.7%
14.92
3.42%
29.25
1.31%
76.48
0.4%
249.94
1
7.62%
13.13
11.65%
8.58
8.91%
11.22
4.55%
21.99
1.74%
57.5
0.53%
187.9
2
5.07%
19.74
7.75%
12.9
5.93%
16.87
3.02%
33.07
1.16%
86.47
0.35%
282.57
3
2.25%
44.53
3.44%
29.11
2.63%
38.05
1.34%
74.6
0.51%
195.05
0.16%
637.35
4
0.75%
133.94
1.14%
87.54
0.87%
114.43
0.45%
224.37
0.17%
586.51
0.05%
1915.71
5
0.2%
503.52
0.3%
329.06
0.23%
430.11
0.12%
843.17
0.05%
2207.51
0.01%
7194.24
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.74% · Fair: 135.57
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.35% 21.65%
1.5 45.22% 54.78%
2.5 19.87% 80.13%
3.5 6.95% 93.05%
4.5 2.0% 98.0%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.73% 17.46
1 16.38% 6.11
2 23.42% 4.27
3 22.33% 4.48
4 15.97% 6.26
5+ 16.18% 6.18
Over 2.5 54.47% Under 2.5 45.53%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.91%
Draw 26.34%
Away Win 41.75%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 54.47%
Under 2.5 45.53%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 57.63%
No 42.37%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.1% 19.59 9.5% 10.52 85.39% 1.17
-1.5 14.61% 6.85 — 85.39% 1.17
-1.0 14.61% 6.85 18.49% 5.41 66.9% 1.49
-0.5 33.1% 3.02 — 66.9% 1.49
0 (PK) 33.1% 3.02 24.83% 4.03 42.07% 2.38
+0.5 57.93% 1.73 — 42.07% 2.38
+1.0 57.93% 1.73 21.27% 4.7 20.8% 4.81
+1.5 79.2% 1.26 — 20.8% 4.81
+2.0 79.2% 1.26 12.58% 7.95 8.22% 12.16

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.