Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.86%
Fair Odds 2.51
Draw
25.17%
Fair Odds 3.97
Away Win
34.97%
Fair Odds 2.86
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.7% Fair Odds 9.35

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.51 —
Draw 3.97 —
Away Win 2.86 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.7% 9.35
2 2-1 8.61% 11.61
3 1-2 8.13% 12.3
4 1-0 7.04% 14.21
5 0-1 6.65% 15.05
6 2-2 6.55% 15.28
7 2-0 5.67% 17.65
8 0-2 5.05% 19.8
9 3-1 4.62% 21.64
10 0-0 4.37% 22.87
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.37%
22.87
6.65%
15.05
5.05%
19.8
2.56%
39.08
0.97%
102.85
0.3%
338.29
1
7.04%
14.21
10.7%
9.35
8.13%
12.3
4.12%
24.27
1.57%
63.88
0.48%
210.13
2
5.67%
17.65
8.61%
11.61
6.55%
15.28
3.32%
30.15
1.26%
79.35
0.38%
261.03
3
3.04%
32.89
4.62%
21.64
3.51%
28.47
1.78%
56.19
0.68%
147.86
0.21%
486.38
4
1.22%
81.71
1.86%
53.75
1.41%
70.73
0.72%
139.59
0.27%
367.38
0.08%
1207.73
5
0.39%
253.74
0.6%
166.94
0.46%
219.64
0.23%
433.46
0.09%
1140.25
0.03%
3759.4
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.09% · Fair: 91.48
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.01% 19.99%
1.5 47.83% 52.17%
2.5 21.92% 78.08%
3.5 8.02% 91.98%
4.5 2.42% 97.58%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.13% 21.87%
1.5 44.88% 55.12%
2.5 19.62% 80.38%
3.5 6.82% 93.18%
4.5 1.95% 98.05%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.37% 22.87
1 13.68% 7.31
2 21.41% 4.67
3 22.34% 4.48
4 17.48% 5.72
5+ 20.70% 4.83
Over 2.5 60.53% Under 2.5 39.47%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.86%
Draw 25.17%
Away Win 34.97%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.53%
Under 2.5 39.47%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.51%
No 37.49%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.16% 12.25 11.96% 8.36 79.88% 1.25
-1.5 20.12% 4.97 — 79.88% 1.25
-1.0 20.12% 4.97 19.98% 5.01 59.91% 1.67
-0.5 40.09% 2.49 — 59.91% 1.67
0 (PK) 40.09% 2.49 23.7% 4.22 36.21% 2.76
+0.5 63.79% 1.57 — 36.21% 2.76
+1.0 63.79% 1.57 18.86% 5.3 17.35% 5.76
+1.5 82.65% 1.21 — 17.35% 5.76
+2.0 82.65% 1.21 10.66% 9.38 6.69% 14.94

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.