Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.67%
Fair Odds 2.8
Draw
25.78%
Fair Odds 3.88
Away Win
38.54%
Fair Odds 2.59
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.2% Fair Odds 8.93

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.8 —
Draw 3.88 —
Away Win 2.59 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.2% 8.93
2 1-2 8.51% 11.75
3 2-1 8.29% 12.07
4 0-1 7.57% 13.21
5 1-0 7.37% 13.57
6 2-2 6.3% 15.88
7 0-2 5.75% 17.39
8 2-0 5.45% 18.34
9 0-0 4.98% 20.09
10 1-3 4.31% 23.19
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.98%
20.09
7.57%
13.21
5.75%
17.39
2.91%
34.32
1.11%
90.31
0.34%
297.09
1
7.37%
13.57
11.2%
8.93
8.51%
11.75
4.31%
23.19
1.64%
61.02
0.5%
200.72
2
5.45%
18.34
8.29%
12.07
6.3%
15.88
3.19%
31.33
1.21%
82.45
0.37%
271.22
3
2.69%
37.17
4.09%
24.46
3.11%
32.18
1.57%
63.51
0.6%
167.14
0.18%
549.75
4
1.0%
100.47
1.51%
66.1
1.15%
86.97
0.58%
171.67
0.22%
451.67
0.07%
1485.88
5
0.29%
339.44
0.45%
223.31
0.34%
293.86
0.17%
580.05
0.07%
1526.72
0.02%
5025.13
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.89% · Fair: 112.31
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.24% 22.76%
1.5 43.55% 56.45%
2.5 18.61% 81.39%
3.5 6.32% 93.68%
4.5 1.76% 98.23%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.13% 21.87%
1.5 44.88% 55.12%
2.5 19.62% 80.38%
3.5 6.82% 93.18%
4.5 1.95% 98.05%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.98% 20.09
1 14.94% 6.70
2 22.40% 4.46
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.80% 5.95
5+ 18.47% 5.41
Over 2.5 57.68% Under 2.5 42.32%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.67%
Draw 25.78%
Away Win 38.54%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.68%
Under 2.5 42.32%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.34%
No 39.66%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.67% 14.98 10.88% 9.19 82.44% 1.21
-1.5 17.56% 5.7 — 82.44% 1.21
-1.0 17.56% 5.7 19.42% 5.15 63.03% 1.59
-0.5 36.97% 2.7 — 63.03% 1.59
0 (PK) 36.97% 2.7 24.29% 4.12 38.73% 2.58
+0.5 61.27% 1.63 — 38.73% 2.58
+1.0 61.27% 1.63 19.94% 5.01 18.79% 5.32
+1.5 81.21% 1.23 — 18.79% 5.32
+2.0 81.21% 1.23 11.48% 8.71 7.31% 13.67

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.