Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.96%
Fair Odds 2.86
Draw
25.92%
Fair Odds 3.86
Away Win
39.12%
Fair Odds 2.56
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.31% Fair Odds 8.84

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.86 —
Draw 3.86 —
Away Win 2.56 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.31% 8.84
2 1-2 8.59% 11.64
3 2-1 8.2% 12.2
4 0-1 7.8% 12.82
5 1-0 7.44% 13.44
6 2-2 6.23% 16.05
7 0-2 5.93% 16.87
8 2-0 5.39% 18.54
9 0-0 5.13% 19.49
10 1-3 4.35% 22.97
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.13%
19.49
7.8%
12.82
5.93%
16.87
3.0%
33.3
1.14%
87.63
0.35%
288.27
1
7.44%
13.44
11.31%
8.84
8.59%
11.64
4.35%
22.97
1.65%
60.44
0.5%
198.81
2
5.39%
18.54
8.2%
12.2
6.23%
16.05
3.16%
31.68
1.2%
83.37
0.36%
274.2
3
2.61%
38.36
3.96%
25.24
3.01%
33.21
1.53%
65.54
0.58%
172.47
0.18%
567.21
4
0.94%
105.83
1.44%
69.62
1.09%
91.61
0.55%
180.8
0.21%
475.74
0.06%
1564.95
5
0.27%
364.96
0.42%
240.1
0.32%
315.86
0.16%
623.44
0.06%
1642.04
0.02%
5405.41
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.85% · Fair: 117.43
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.13% 21.87%
1.5 44.88% 55.12%
2.5 19.62% 80.38%
3.5 6.82% 93.18%
4.5 1.95% 98.05%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.13% 19.49
1 15.24% 6.56
2 22.63% 4.42
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.63% 6.01
5+ 17.97% 5.56
Over 2.5 57.01% Under 2.5 42.99%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.96%
Draw 25.92%
Away Win 39.12%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.01%
Under 2.5 42.99%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.8%
No 40.2%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.35% 15.74 10.62% 9.41 83.02% 1.2
-1.5 16.98% 5.89 — 83.02% 1.2
-1.0 16.98% 5.89 19.27% 5.19 63.76% 1.57
-0.5 36.24% 2.76 — 63.76% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.24% 2.76 24.42% 4.09 39.33% 2.54
+0.5 60.67% 1.65 — 39.33% 2.54
+1.0 60.67% 1.65 20.2% 4.95 19.14% 5.23
+1.5 80.86% 1.24 — 19.14% 5.23
+2.0 80.86% 1.24 11.67% 8.57 7.46% 13.4

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.