Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
23.72%
Fair Odds 4.22
Draw
27.33%
Fair Odds 3.66
Away Win
48.95%
Fair Odds 2.04
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 12.35% Fair Odds 8.1

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.22 —
Draw 3.66 —
Away Win 2.04 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 12.35% 8.1
2 1-1 12.23% 8.18
3 0-2 9.39% 10.65
4 1-2 9.29% 10.76
5 0-0 8.13% 12.3
6 1-0 8.05% 12.43
7 2-1 6.05% 16.52
8 0-3 4.76% 21.02
9 1-3 4.71% 21.24
10 2-2 4.6% 21.74
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.13%
12.3
12.35%
8.1
9.39%
10.65
4.76%
21.02
1.81%
55.33
0.55%
181.98
1
8.05%
12.43
12.23%
8.18
9.29%
10.76
4.71%
21.24
1.79%
55.88
0.54%
183.82
2
3.98%
25.11
6.05%
16.52
4.6%
21.74
2.33%
42.9
0.89%
112.89
0.27%
371.33
3
1.31%
76.09
2.0%
50.06
1.52%
65.87
0.77%
130.01
0.29%
342.11
0.09%
1124.86
4
0.33%
307.41
0.49%
202.27
0.38%
266.1
0.19%
525.21
0.07%
1383.13
0.02%
4545.45
5
0.06%
1552.8
0.1%
1021.45
0.07%
1344.09
0.04%
2652.52
0.01%
6993.01
0.0%
22727.27
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.53% · Fair: 188.47
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 62.84% 37.16%
1.5 26.06% 73.94%
2.5 7.85% 92.15%
3.5 1.84% 98.16%
4.5 0.35% 99.65%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 78.13% 21.87%
1.5 44.88% 55.12%
2.5 19.62% 80.38%
3.5 6.82% 93.18%
4.5 1.95% 98.05%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.13% 12.30
1 20.40% 4.90
2 25.60% 3.91
3 21.42% 4.67
4 13.44% 7.44
5+ 11.02% 9.08
Over 2.5 45.87% Under 2.5 54.13%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 23.72%
Draw 27.33%
Away Win 48.95%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.87%
Under 2.5 54.13%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.1%
No 50.9%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.42% 41.26 6.4% 15.63 91.18% 1.1
-1.5 8.82% 11.34 — 91.18% 1.1
-1.0 8.82% 11.34 15.82% 6.32 75.36% 1.33
-0.5 24.64% 4.06 — 75.36% 1.33
0 (PK) 24.64% 4.06 25.8% 3.88 49.55% 2.02
+0.5 50.45% 1.98 — 49.55% 2.02
+1.0 50.45% 1.98 24.29% 4.12 25.26% 3.96
+1.5 74.74% 1.34 — 25.26% 3.96
+2.0 74.74% 1.34 15.08% 6.63 10.18% 9.82

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.