Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
51.34%
Fair Odds 1.95
Draw
22.23%
Fair Odds 4.5
Away Win
26.43%
Fair Odds 3.78
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 8.99% Fair Odds 11.12

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.95 —
Draw 4.5 —
Away Win 3.78 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 8.99% 11.12
2 1-1 8.44% 11.84
3 2-2 6.79% 14.73
4 3-1 6.38% 15.66
5 1-2 6.38% 15.69
6 2-0 5.96% 16.79
7 1-0 5.59% 17.88
8 3-2 4.82% 20.75
9 3-0 4.23% 23.65
10 0-1 3.96% 25.23
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.63%
38.09
3.96%
25.23
2.99%
33.41
1.51%
66.38
0.57%
175.84
0.17%
582.41
1
5.59%
17.88
8.44%
11.84
6.38%
15.69
3.21%
31.17
1.21%
82.56
0.37%
273.37
2
5.96%
16.79
8.99%
11.12
6.79%
14.73
3.42%
29.26
1.29%
77.52
0.39%
256.67
3
4.23%
23.65
6.38%
15.66
4.82%
20.75
2.43%
41.22
0.92%
109.18
0.28%
361.53
4
2.25%
44.41
3.4%
29.41
2.57%
38.96
1.29%
77.4
0.49%
205.04
0.15%
678.89
5
0.96%
104.25
1.45%
69.05
1.09%
91.45
0.55%
181.69
0.21%
481.23
0.06%
1594.9
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.62% · Fair: 38.15
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 88.11% 11.88%
1.5 62.8% 37.2%
2.5 35.84% 64.15%
3.5 16.7% 83.29%
4.5 6.51% 93.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.91% 22.09%
1.5 44.55% 55.45%
2.5 19.37% 80.63%
3.5 6.69% 93.31%
4.5 1.9% 98.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.63% 38.09
1 9.56% 10.46
2 17.39% 5.75
3 21.10% 4.74
4 19.20% 5.21
5+ 30.12% 3.32
Over 2.5 70.43% Under 2.5 29.57%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 51.34%
Draw 22.23%
Away Win 26.43%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 70.43%
Under 2.5 29.57%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 68.65%
No 31.35%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 15.44% 6.48 15.54% 6.44 69.02% 1.45
-1.5 30.98% 3.23 — 69.02% 1.45
-1.0 30.98% 3.23 20.93% 4.78 48.09% 2.08
-0.5 51.91% 1.93 — 48.09% 2.08
0 (PK) 51.91% 1.93 20.84% 4.8 27.25% 3.67
+0.5 72.75% 1.37 — 27.25% 3.67
+1.0 72.75% 1.37 14.84% 6.74 12.42% 8.05
+1.5 87.58% 1.14 — 12.42% 8.05
+2.0 87.58% 1.14 7.81% 12.81 4.61% 21.71

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.