Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.65%
Fair Odds 2.06
Draw
23.03%
Fair Odds 4.34
Away Win
28.32%
Fair Odds 3.53
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.03% Fair Odds 11.08

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.06 —
Draw 4.34 —
Away Win 3.53 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.03% 11.08
2 2-1 9.03% 11.08
3 1-2 6.82% 14.67
4 2-2 6.82% 14.67
5 3-1 6.02% 16.61
6 1-0 5.98% 16.72
7 2-0 5.98% 16.72
8 3-2 4.54% 22.0
9 0-1 4.51% 22.15
10 3-0 3.99% 25.09
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.99%
33.45
4.51%
22.15
3.41%
29.34
1.72%
58.29
0.65%
154.42
0.2%
511.25
1
5.98%
16.72
9.03%
11.08
6.82%
14.67
3.43%
29.14
1.3%
77.2
0.39%
255.62
2
5.98%
16.72
9.03%
11.08
6.82%
14.67
3.43%
29.14
1.3%
77.2
0.39%
255.62
3
3.99%
25.09
6.02%
16.61
4.54%
22.0
2.29%
43.72
0.86%
115.81
0.26%
383.44
4
1.99%
50.17
3.01%
33.23
2.27%
44.01
1.14%
87.44
0.43%
231.59
0.13%
766.87
5
0.8%
125.42
1.2%
83.06
0.91%
110.02
0.46%
218.58
0.17%
579.04
0.05%
1915.71
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.11% · Fair: 47.45
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 86.47% 13.53%
1.5 59.4% 40.6%
2.5 32.33% 67.67%
3.5 14.29% 85.71%
4.5 5.26% 94.73%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.91% 22.09%
1.5 44.55% 55.45%
2.5 19.37% 80.63%
3.5 6.69% 93.31%
4.5 1.9% 98.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.99% 33.45
1 10.49% 9.53
2 18.42% 5.43
3 21.55% 4.64
4 18.91% 5.29
5+ 27.64% 3.62
Over 2.5 68.1% Under 2.5 31.9%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.65%
Draw 23.03%
Away Win 28.32%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 68.1%
Under 2.5 31.9%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.36%
No 32.64%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.47% 7.43 14.79% 6.76 71.74% 1.39
-1.5 28.26% 3.54 — 71.74% 1.39
-1.0 28.26% 3.54 20.89% 4.79 50.85% 1.97
-0.5 49.15% 2.03 — 50.85% 1.97
0 (PK) 49.15% 2.03 21.61% 4.63 29.24% 3.42
+0.5 70.76% 1.41 — 29.24% 3.42
+1.0 70.76% 1.41 15.77% 6.34 13.47% 7.42
+1.5 86.53% 1.16 — 13.47% 7.42
+2.0 86.53% 1.16 8.43% 11.86 5.04% 19.84

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.