Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.02%
Fair Odds 2.08
Draw
23.21%
Fair Odds 4.31
Away Win
28.78%
Fair Odds 3.47
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.16% Fair Odds 10.91

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.08 —
Draw 4.31 —
Away Win 3.47 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.16% 10.91
2 2-1 9.03% 11.08
3 1-2 6.92% 14.45
4 2-2 6.82% 14.67
5 1-0 6.07% 16.48
6 2-0 5.98% 16.73
7 3-1 5.93% 16.87
8 0-1 4.65% 21.5
9 3-2 4.48% 22.34
10 3-0 3.93% 25.47
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.08%
32.46
4.65%
21.5
3.51%
28.47
1.77%
56.57
0.67%
149.84
0.2%
496.28
1
6.07%
16.48
9.16%
10.91
6.92%
14.45
3.48%
28.71
1.31%
76.06
0.4%
251.89
2
5.98%
16.73
9.03%
11.08
6.82%
14.67
3.43%
29.15
1.29%
77.22
0.39%
255.69
3
3.93%
25.47
5.93%
16.87
4.48%
22.34
2.25%
44.39
0.85%
117.59
0.26%
389.41
4
1.93%
51.72
2.92%
34.25
2.2%
45.37
1.11%
90.14
0.42%
238.78
0.13%
790.51
5
0.76%
131.29
1.15%
86.94
0.87%
115.15
0.44%
228.78
0.17%
606.06
0.05%
2008.03
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.0% · Fair: 49.94
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 86.05% 13.95%
1.5 58.58% 41.42%
2.5 31.52% 68.48%
3.5 13.75% 86.25%
4.5 5.0% 95.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.91% 22.09%
1.5 44.55% 55.45%
2.5 19.37% 80.63%
3.5 6.69% 93.31%
4.5 1.9% 98.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.08% 32.46
1 10.72% 9.33
2 18.65% 5.36
3 21.64% 4.62
4 18.83% 5.31
5+ 27.08% 3.69
Over 2.5 67.54% Under 2.5 32.46%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.02%
Draw 23.21%
Away Win 28.78%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 67.54%
Under 2.5 32.46%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.04%
No 32.96%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.03% 7.68 14.61% 6.85 72.37% 1.38
-1.5 27.63% 3.62 — 72.37% 1.38
-1.0 27.63% 3.62 20.86% 4.79 51.5% 1.94
-0.5 48.5% 2.06 — 51.5% 1.94
0 (PK) 48.5% 2.06 21.79% 4.59 29.72% 3.36
+0.5 70.28% 1.42 — 29.72% 3.36
+1.0 70.28% 1.42 15.99% 6.25 13.73% 7.29
+1.5 86.27% 1.16 — 13.73% 7.29
+2.0 86.27% 1.16 8.58% 11.65 5.15% 19.44

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.