Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.11%
Fair Odds 2.27
Draw
24.25%
Fair Odds 4.12
Away Win
31.64%
Fair Odds 3.16
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.97% Fair Odds 10.03

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.27 —
Draw 4.12 —
Away Win 3.16 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.97% 10.03
2 2-1 8.92% 11.21
3 1-2 7.53% 13.29
4 2-2 6.74% 14.84
5 1-0 6.6% 15.15
6 2-0 5.91% 16.92
7 0-1 5.57% 17.96
8 3-1 5.32% 18.78
9 0-2 4.2% 23.78
10 3-2 4.02% 24.88
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.69%
27.11
5.57%
17.96
4.2%
23.78
2.12%
47.25
0.8%
125.16
0.24%
414.42
1
6.6%
15.15
9.97%
10.03
7.53%
13.29
3.79%
26.4
1.43%
69.93
0.43%
231.54
2
5.91%
16.92
8.92%
11.21
6.74%
14.84
3.39%
29.49
1.28%
78.12
0.39%
258.67
3
3.53%
28.36
5.32%
18.78
4.02%
24.88
2.02%
49.43
0.76%
130.94
0.23%
433.65
4
1.58%
63.38
2.38%
41.97
1.8%
55.6
0.91%
110.46
0.34%
292.57
0.1%
968.99
5
0.56%
177.05
0.85%
117.25
0.64%
155.3
0.32%
308.55
0.12%
816.99
0.04%
2702.7
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.47% · Fair: 68.18
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.3% 16.7%
1.5 53.42% 46.58%
2.5 26.67% 73.33%
3.5 10.71% 89.29%
4.5 3.57% 96.43%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.91% 22.09%
1.5 44.55% 55.45%
2.5 19.37% 80.63%
3.5 6.69% 93.31%
4.5 1.9% 98.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.69% 27.11
1 12.17% 8.22
2 20.08% 4.98
3 22.09% 4.53
4 18.23% 5.49
5+ 23.74% 4.21
Over 2.5 64.06% Under 2.5 35.94%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.11%
Draw 24.25%
Away Win 31.64%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.06%
Under 2.5 35.94%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.9%
No 35.1%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.5% 9.52 13.39% 7.47 76.1% 1.31
-1.5 23.9% 4.18 — 76.1% 1.31
-1.0 23.9% 4.18 20.58% 4.86 55.52% 1.8
-0.5 44.48% 2.25 — 55.52% 1.8
0 (PK) 44.48% 2.25 22.8% 4.39 32.72% 3.06
+0.5 67.28% 1.49 — 32.72% 3.06
+1.0 67.28% 1.49 17.36% 5.76 15.36% 6.51
+1.5 84.64% 1.18 — 15.36% 6.51
+2.0 84.64% 1.18 9.53% 10.49 5.82% 17.17

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.