Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.28%
Fair Odds 2.48
Draw
25.16%
Fair Odds 3.97
Away Win
34.56%
Fair Odds 2.89
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.69% Fair Odds 9.35

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.48 —
Draw 3.97 —
Away Win 2.89 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.69% 9.35
2 2-1 8.66% 11.54
3 1-2 8.07% 12.39
4 1-0 7.08% 14.12
5 0-1 6.6% 15.15
6 2-2 6.54% 15.29
7 2-0 5.74% 17.43
8 0-2 4.98% 20.06
9 3-1 4.68% 21.38
10 0-0 4.37% 22.87
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.37%
22.87
6.6%
15.15
4.98%
20.06
2.51%
39.86
0.95%
105.6
0.29%
349.65
1
7.08%
14.12
10.69%
9.35
8.07%
12.39
4.06%
24.61
1.53%
65.18
0.46%
215.84
2
5.74%
17.43
8.66%
11.54
6.54%
15.29
3.29%
30.38
1.24%
80.47
0.38%
266.45
3
3.1%
32.28
4.68%
21.38
3.53%
28.32
1.78%
56.26
0.67%
149.03
0.2%
493.34
4
1.25%
79.71
1.89%
52.78
1.43%
69.92
0.72%
138.91
0.27%
367.92
0.08%
1218.03
5
0.41%
246.0
0.61%
162.92
0.46%
215.8
0.23%
428.63
0.09%
1135.07
0.03%
3759.4
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.1% · Fair: 91.2
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.21% 19.79%
1.5 48.15% 51.85%
2.5 22.18% 77.82%
3.5 8.16% 91.84%
4.5 2.48% 97.52%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.91% 22.09%
1.5 44.55% 55.45%
2.5 19.37% 80.63%
3.5 6.69% 93.31%
4.5 1.9% 98.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.37% 22.87
1 13.68% 7.31
2 21.42% 4.67
3 22.34% 4.48
4 17.48% 5.72
5+ 20.70% 4.83
Over 2.5 60.53% Under 2.5 39.47%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.28%
Draw 25.16%
Away Win 34.56%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.53%
Under 2.5 39.47%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.49%
No 37.51%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.33% 12.0 12.1% 8.26 79.56% 1.26
-1.5 20.44% 4.89 — 79.56% 1.26
-1.0 20.44% 4.89 20.09% 4.98 59.47% 1.68
-0.5 40.53% 2.47 — 59.47% 1.68
0 (PK) 40.53% 2.47 23.68% 4.22 35.79% 2.79
+0.5 64.21% 1.56 — 35.79% 2.79
+1.0 64.21% 1.56 18.73% 5.34 17.06% 5.86
+1.5 82.94% 1.21 — 17.06% 5.86
+2.0 82.94% 1.21 10.52% 9.51 6.54% 15.28

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.