Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.82%
Fair Odds 2.51
Draw
25.26%
Fair Odds 3.96
Away Win
34.92%
Fair Odds 2.86
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.78% Fair Odds 9.28

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.51 —
Draw 3.96 —
Away Win 2.86 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.78% 9.28
2 2-1 8.62% 11.6
3 1-2 8.14% 12.29
4 1-0 7.14% 14.01
5 0-1 6.73% 14.85
6 2-2 6.51% 15.36
7 2-0 5.71% 17.52
8 0-2 5.08% 19.67
9 3-1 4.6% 21.75
10 0-0 4.46% 22.42
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.46%
22.42
6.73%
14.85
5.08%
19.67
2.56%
39.07
0.97%
103.51
0.29%
342.7
1
7.14%
14.01
10.78%
9.28
8.14%
12.29
4.09%
24.42
1.55%
64.69
0.47%
214.22
2
5.71%
17.52
8.62%
11.6
6.51%
15.36
3.28%
30.53
1.24%
80.86
0.37%
267.74
3
3.04%
32.84
4.6%
21.75
3.47%
28.81
1.75%
57.23
0.66%
151.61
0.2%
502.01
4
1.22%
82.11
1.84%
54.38
1.39%
72.02
0.7%
143.08
0.26%
379.08
0.08%
1254.71
5
0.39%
256.61
0.59%
169.92
0.44%
225.07
0.22%
447.23
0.08%
1184.83
0.03%
3921.57
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.06% · Fair: 94.26
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.81% 20.19%
1.5 47.51% 52.49%
2.5 21.66% 78.34%
3.5 7.88% 92.12%
4.5 2.37% 97.63%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.91% 22.09%
1.5 44.55% 55.45%
2.5 19.37% 80.63%
3.5 6.69% 93.31%
4.5 1.9% 98.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.46% 22.42
1 13.87% 7.21
2 21.57% 4.64
3 22.36% 4.47
4 17.39% 5.75
5+ 20.35% 4.91
Over 2.5 60.1% Under 2.5 39.9%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.82%
Draw 25.26%
Away Win 34.92%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.1%
Under 2.5 39.9%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.18%
No 37.82%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.09% 12.35 11.94% 8.37 79.96% 1.25
-1.5 20.04% 4.99 — 79.96% 1.25
-1.0 20.04% 4.99 20.02% 5.0 59.94% 1.67
-0.5 40.06% 2.5 — 59.94% 1.67
0 (PK) 40.06% 2.5 23.78% 4.2 36.16% 2.77
+0.5 63.84% 1.57 — 36.16% 2.77
+1.0 63.84% 1.57 18.89% 5.29 17.27% 5.79
+1.5 82.73% 1.21 — 17.27% 5.79
+2.0 82.73% 1.21 10.64% 9.4 6.63% 15.08

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.