Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.2%
Fair Odds 2.62
Draw
25.6%
Fair Odds 3.91
Away Win
36.2%
Fair Odds 2.76
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.05% Fair Odds 9.05

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.62 —
Draw 3.91 —
Away Win 2.76 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.05% 9.05
2 2-1 8.45% 11.83
3 1-2 8.34% 11.99
4 1-0 7.32% 13.66
5 0-1 7.22% 13.84
6 2-2 6.38% 15.67
7 2-0 5.6% 17.86
8 0-2 5.45% 18.34
9 0-0 4.78% 20.91
10 3-1 4.31% 23.19
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.78%
20.91
7.22%
13.84
5.45%
18.34
2.74%
36.43
1.04%
96.51
0.31%
319.59
1
7.32%
13.66
11.05%
9.05
8.34%
11.99
4.2%
23.81
1.59%
63.08
0.48%
208.86
2
5.6%
17.86
8.45%
11.83
6.38%
15.67
3.21%
31.13
1.21%
82.45
0.37%
273.0
3
2.86%
35.02
4.31%
23.19
3.26%
30.72
1.64%
61.03
0.62%
161.68
0.19%
535.33
4
1.09%
91.56
1.65%
60.64
1.25%
80.31
0.63%
159.57
0.24%
422.65
0.07%
1398.6
5
0.33%
299.22
0.5%
198.14
0.38%
262.47
0.19%
521.38
0.07%
1381.22
0.02%
4566.21
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.95% · Fair: 105.62
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.35% 21.65%
1.5 45.22% 54.78%
2.5 19.87% 80.13%
3.5 6.95% 93.05%
4.5 2.0% 98.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.91% 22.09%
1.5 44.55% 55.45%
2.5 19.37% 80.63%
3.5 6.69% 93.31%
4.5 1.9% 98.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.78% 20.91
1 14.54% 6.88
2 22.10% 4.52
3 22.40% 4.46
4 17.02% 5.87
5+ 19.15% 5.22
Over 2.5 58.57% Under 2.5 41.43%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.20%
Draw 25.60%
Away Win 36.20%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.57%
Under 2.5 41.43%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.04%
No 38.96%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.28% 13.74 11.37% 8.8 81.35% 1.23
-1.5 18.65% 5.36 — 81.35% 1.23
-1.0 18.65% 5.36 19.73% 5.07 61.62% 1.62
-0.5 38.38% 2.61 — 61.62% 1.62
0 (PK) 38.38% 2.61 24.12% 4.15 37.5% 2.67
+0.5 62.5% 1.6 — 37.5% 2.67
+1.0 62.5% 1.6 19.48% 5.13 18.03% 5.55
+1.5 81.97% 1.22 — 18.03% 5.55
+2.0 81.97% 1.22 11.07% 9.03 6.96% 14.37

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.