Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.91%
Fair Odds 2.86
Draw
26.01%
Fair Odds 3.84
Away Win
39.08%
Fair Odds 2.56
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.38% Fair Odds 8.79

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.86 —
Draw 3.84 —
Away Win 2.56 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.38% 8.79
2 1-2 8.59% 11.64
3 2-1 8.19% 12.2
4 0-1 7.9% 12.65
5 1-0 7.54% 13.27
6 2-2 6.19% 16.16
7 0-2 5.97% 16.76
8 2-0 5.43% 18.43
9 0-0 5.23% 19.11
10 1-3 4.32% 23.12
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.23%
19.11
7.9%
12.65
5.97%
16.76
3.0%
33.3
1.13%
88.2
0.34%
292.06
1
7.54%
13.27
11.38%
8.79
8.59%
11.64
4.32%
23.12
1.63%
61.25
0.49%
202.8
2
5.43%
18.43
8.19%
12.2
6.19%
16.16
3.11%
32.11
1.18%
85.07
0.36%
281.69
3
2.6%
38.39
3.93%
25.42
2.97%
33.67
1.49%
66.9
0.56%
177.24
0.17%
586.85
4
0.94%
106.64
1.42%
70.63
1.07%
93.55
0.54%
185.84
0.2%
492.37
0.06%
1631.32
5
0.27%
370.23
0.41%
245.22
0.31%
324.78
0.15%
645.16
0.06%
1709.4
0.02%
5649.72
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.82% · Fair: 121.27
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.91% 22.09%
1.5 44.55% 55.45%
2.5 19.37% 80.63%
3.5 6.69% 93.31%
4.5 1.9% 98.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.23% 19.11
1 15.44% 6.48
2 22.77% 4.39
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.52% 6.05
5+ 17.64% 5.67
Over 2.5 56.55% Under 2.5 43.45%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.91%
Draw 26.01%
Away Win 39.08%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.55%
Under 2.5 43.45%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.45%
No 40.55%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.29% 15.9 10.6% 9.44 83.11% 1.2
-1.5 16.89% 5.92 — 83.11% 1.2
-1.0 16.89% 5.92 19.3% 5.18 63.81% 1.57
-0.5 36.19% 2.76 — 63.81% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.19% 2.76 24.52% 4.08 39.29% 2.55
+0.5 60.71% 1.65 — 39.29% 2.55
+1.0 60.71% 1.65 20.24% 4.94 19.05% 5.25
+1.5 80.95% 1.24 — 19.05% 5.25
+2.0 80.95% 1.24 11.65% 8.58 7.4% 13.52

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.