Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.82%
Fair Odds 3.35
Draw
26.82%
Fair Odds 3.73
Away Win
43.35%
Fair Odds 2.31
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.99% Fair Odds 8.34

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.35 —
Draw 3.73 —
Away Win 2.31 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.99% 8.34
2 0-1 9.75% 10.26
3 1-2 9.05% 11.04
4 1-0 7.94% 12.59
5 2-1 7.38% 13.56
6 0-2 7.36% 13.58
7 0-0 6.46% 15.49
8 2-2 5.57% 17.96
9 2-0 4.88% 20.47
10 1-3 4.56% 21.94
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.46%
15.49
9.75%
10.26
7.36%
13.58
3.71%
26.99
1.4%
71.49
0.42%
236.74
1
7.94%
12.59
11.99%
8.34
9.05%
11.04
4.56%
21.94
1.72%
58.13
0.52%
192.46
2
4.88%
20.47
7.38%
13.56
5.57%
17.96
2.8%
35.68
1.06%
94.51
0.32%
312.99
3
2.0%
49.94
3.02%
33.07
2.28%
43.8
1.15%
87.02
0.43%
230.52
0.13%
763.36
4
0.62%
162.39
0.93%
107.54
0.7%
142.45
0.35%
282.97
0.13%
749.63
0.04%
2481.39
5
0.15%
660.07
0.23%
437.25
0.17%
579.04
0.09%
1150.75
0.03%
3048.78
0.01%
10101.01
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.63% · Fair: 159.03
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.91% 22.09%
1.5 44.55% 55.45%
2.5 19.37% 80.63%
3.5 6.69% 93.31%
4.5 1.9% 98.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.46% 15.49
1 17.69% 5.65
2 24.24% 4.13
3 22.14% 4.52
4 15.16% 6.59
5+ 14.31% 6.99
Over 2.5 51.61% Under 2.5 48.39%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.82%
Draw 26.82%
Away Win 43.35%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.61%
Under 2.5 48.39%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.14%
No 44.86%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.26% 23.47 8.7% 11.49 87.03% 1.15
-1.5 12.97% 7.71 — 87.03% 1.15
-1.0 12.97% 7.71 17.99% 5.56 69.05% 1.45
-0.5 30.95% 3.23 — 69.05% 1.45
0 (PK) 30.95% 3.23 25.31% 3.95 43.73% 2.29
+0.5 56.27% 1.78 — 43.73% 2.29
+1.0 56.27% 1.78 22.08% 4.53 21.65% 4.62
+1.5 78.35% 1.28 — 21.65% 4.62
+2.0 78.35% 1.28 13.12% 7.62 8.53% 11.72

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.