Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
18.86%
Fair Odds 5.3
Draw
27.59%
Fair Odds 3.62
Away Win
53.55%
Fair Odds 1.87
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 15.14% Fair Odds 6.61

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 5.3 —
Draw 3.62 —
Away Win 1.87 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 15.14% 6.61
2 1-1 11.96% 8.36
3 0-2 11.43% 8.75
4 0-0 10.03% 9.97
5 1-2 9.03% 11.07
6 1-0 7.92% 12.63
7 0-3 5.75% 17.38
8 2-1 4.72% 21.17
9 1-3 4.54% 22.0
10 2-2 3.57% 28.04
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.03%
9.97
15.14%
6.61
11.43%
8.75
5.75%
17.38
2.17%
46.04
0.66%
152.46
1
7.92%
12.63
11.96%
8.36
9.03%
11.07
4.54%
22.0
1.72%
58.29
0.52%
193.01
2
3.13%
31.96
4.72%
21.17
3.57%
28.04
1.8%
55.7
0.68%
147.56
0.2%
488.52
3
0.82%
121.37
1.24%
80.39
0.94%
106.47
0.47%
211.51
0.18%
560.22
0.05%
1855.29
4
0.16%
614.63
0.25%
407.0
0.19%
539.08
0.09%
1070.66
0.04%
2840.91
0.01%
9433.96
5
0.03%
3891.05
0.04%
2577.32
0.03%
3412.97
0.01%
6756.76
0.01%
17857.14
0.0%
58823.53
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.48% · Fair: 209.73
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 54.62% 45.38%
1.5 18.76% 81.24%
2.5 4.6% 95.4%
3.5 0.87% 99.13%
4.5 0.13% 99.87%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.91% 22.09%
1.5 44.55% 55.45%
2.5 19.37% 80.63%
3.5 6.69% 93.31%
4.5 1.9% 98.09%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.03% 9.97
1 23.06% 4.34
2 26.52% 3.77
3 20.33% 4.92
4 11.69% 8.55
5+ 8.38% 11.94
Over 2.5 40.4% Under 2.5 59.6%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 18.86%
Draw 27.59%
Away Win 53.55%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 40.4%
Under 2.5 59.6%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 42.55%
No 57.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.34% 74.5 4.57% 21.86 94.08% 1.06
-1.5 5.92% 16.9 — 94.08% 1.06
-1.0 5.92% 16.9 13.68% 7.31 80.4% 1.24
-0.5 19.6% 5.1 — 80.4% 1.24
0 (PK) 19.6% 5.1 26.06% 3.84 54.34% 1.84
+0.5 45.66% 2.19 — 54.34% 1.84
+1.0 45.66% 2.19 26.15% 3.82 28.19% 3.55
+1.5 71.81% 1.39 — 28.19% 3.55
+2.0 71.81% 1.39 16.71% 5.98 11.48% 8.71

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.