Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
36.95%
Fair Odds 2.71
Draw
26.1%
Fair Odds 3.83
Away Win
36.95%
Fair Odds 2.71
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.2% Fair Odds 8.93

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.71 —
Draw 3.83 —
Away Win 2.71 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.2% 8.93
2 1-2 8.4% 11.9
3 2-1 8.4% 11.9
4 0-1 7.47% 13.39
5 1-0 7.47% 13.39
6 2-2 6.3% 15.87
7 0-2 5.6% 17.85
8 2-0 5.6% 17.85
9 0-0 4.98% 20.09
10 1-3 4.2% 23.8
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.98%
20.09
7.47%
13.39
5.6%
17.85
2.8%
35.71
1.05%
95.22
0.32%
317.36
1
7.47%
13.39
11.2%
8.93
8.4%
11.9
4.2%
23.8
1.58%
63.48
0.47%
211.6
2
5.6%
17.85
8.4%
11.9
6.3%
15.87
3.15%
31.74
1.18%
84.64
0.35%
282.17
3
2.8%
35.71
4.2%
23.8
3.15%
31.74
1.58%
63.48
0.59%
169.29
0.18%
564.33
4
1.05%
95.22
1.58%
63.48
1.18%
84.64
0.59%
169.29
0.22%
451.47
0.07%
1503.76
5
0.32%
317.36
0.47%
211.6
0.35%
282.17
0.18%
564.33
0.07%
1503.76
0.02%
5025.13
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.89% · Fair: 112.5
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.69% 22.31%
1.5 44.22% 55.78%
2.5 19.12% 80.88%
3.5 6.56% 93.44%
4.5 1.86% 98.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.69% 22.31%
1.5 44.22% 55.78%
2.5 19.12% 80.88%
3.5 6.56% 93.44%
4.5 1.86% 98.14%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.98% 20.09
1 14.94% 6.70
2 22.40% 4.46
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.80% 5.95
5+ 18.47% 5.41
Over 2.5 57.68% Under 2.5 42.32%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 36.95%
Draw 26.10%
Away Win 36.95%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.68%
Under 2.5 42.32%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.35%
No 39.65%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.99% 14.31 11.18% 8.95 81.83% 1.22
-1.5 18.17% 5.5 — 81.83% 1.22
-1.0 18.17% 5.5 19.68% 5.08 62.15% 1.61
-0.5 37.85% 2.64 — 62.15% 1.61
0 (PK) 37.85% 2.64 24.3% 4.12 37.85% 2.64
+0.5 62.15% 1.61 — 37.85% 2.64
+1.0 62.15% 1.61 19.68% 5.08 18.17% 5.5
+1.5 81.83% 1.22 — 18.17% 5.5
+2.0 81.83% 1.22 11.18% 8.95 6.99% 14.31

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.