Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.61%
Fair Odds 2.89
Draw
26.15%
Fair Odds 3.82
Away Win
39.23%
Fair Odds 2.55
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.49% Fair Odds 8.7

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.89 —
Draw 3.82 —
Away Win 2.55 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.49% 8.7
2 1-2 8.62% 11.61
3 2-1 8.16% 12.26
4 0-1 8.09% 12.36
5 1-0 7.66% 13.06
6 2-2 6.12% 16.35
7 0-2 6.07% 16.48
8 2-0 5.44% 18.39
9 0-0 5.39% 18.54
10 1-3 4.31% 23.21
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.39%
18.54
8.09%
12.36
6.07%
16.48
3.03%
32.96
1.14%
87.9
0.34%
293.0
1
7.66%
13.06
11.49%
8.7
8.62%
11.61
4.31%
23.21
1.62%
61.9
0.48%
206.36
2
5.44%
18.39
8.16%
12.26
6.12%
16.35
3.06%
32.69
1.15%
87.18
0.34%
290.61
3
2.57%
38.85
3.86%
25.9
2.9%
34.54
1.45%
69.07
0.54%
184.2
0.16%
613.87
4
0.91%
109.45
1.37%
72.97
1.03%
97.29
0.51%
194.55
0.19%
518.94
0.06%
1730.1
5
0.26%
385.36
0.39%
256.94
0.29%
342.58
0.15%
684.93
0.05%
1828.15
0.02%
6097.56
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.79% · Fair: 127.1
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.69% 22.31%
1.5 44.22% 55.78%
2.5 19.12% 80.88%
3.5 6.56% 93.44%
4.5 1.86% 98.14%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.39% 18.54
1 15.75% 6.35
2 22.99% 4.35
3 22.38% 4.47
4 16.34% 6.12
5+ 17.15% 5.83
Over 2.5 55.86% Under 2.5 44.14%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.61%
Draw 26.15%
Away Win 39.23%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.86%
Under 2.5 44.14%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.91%
No 41.09%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.12% 16.33 10.49% 9.54 83.39% 1.2
-1.5 16.61% 6.02 — 83.39% 1.2
-1.0 16.61% 6.02 19.28% 5.19 64.11% 1.56
-0.5 35.89% 2.79 — 64.11% 1.56
0 (PK) 35.89% 2.79 24.66% 4.06 39.45% 2.53
+0.5 60.55% 1.65 — 39.45% 2.53
+1.0 60.55% 1.65 20.37% 4.91 19.08% 5.24
+1.5 80.92% 1.24 — 19.08% 5.24
+2.0 80.92% 1.24 11.7% 8.55 7.38% 13.55

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.