Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.95%
Fair Odds 2.22
Draw
24.18%
Fair Odds 4.14
Away Win
30.87%
Fair Odds 3.24
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.95% Fair Odds 10.05

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.22 —
Draw 4.14 —
Away Win 3.24 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.95% 10.05
2 2-1 9.0% 11.11
3 1-2 7.41% 13.49
4 2-2 6.71% 14.91
5 1-0 6.68% 14.98
6 2-0 6.04% 16.55
7 0-1 5.5% 18.2
8 3-1 5.43% 18.41
9 0-2 4.09% 24.42
10 3-2 4.05% 24.71
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.69%
27.11
5.5%
18.2
4.09%
24.42
2.03%
49.18
0.76%
132.01
0.23%
443.07
1
6.68%
14.98
9.95%
10.05
7.41%
13.49
3.68%
27.17
1.37%
72.94
0.41%
244.74
2
6.04%
16.55
9.0%
11.11
6.71%
14.91
3.33%
30.02
1.24%
80.59
0.37%
270.49
3
3.65%
27.43
5.43%
18.41
4.05%
24.71
2.01%
49.76
0.75%
133.58
0.22%
448.23
4
1.65%
60.63
2.46%
40.69
1.83%
54.62
0.91%
109.96
0.34%
295.25
0.1%
991.08
5
0.6%
167.48
0.89%
112.4
0.66%
150.88
0.33%
303.77
0.12%
815.66
0.04%
2739.73
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.49% · Fair: 67.08
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.63% 16.37%
1.5 54.01% 45.99%
2.5 27.21% 72.79%
3.5 11.03% 88.97%
4.5 3.71% 96.29%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.46% 22.54%
1.5 43.88% 56.12%
2.5 18.86% 81.14%
3.5 6.44% 93.56%
4.5 1.81% 98.19%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.69% 27.11
1 12.17% 8.22
2 20.08% 4.98
3 22.09% 4.53
4 18.23% 5.49
5+ 23.74% 4.21
Over 2.5 64.06% Under 2.5 35.94%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.95%
Draw 24.18%
Away Win 30.87%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.06%
Under 2.5 35.94%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.79%
No 35.21%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.91% 9.17 13.67% 7.31 75.42% 1.33
-1.5 24.58% 4.07 — 75.42% 1.33
-1.0 24.58% 4.07 20.77% 4.82 54.65% 1.83
-0.5 45.35% 2.21 — 54.65% 1.83
0 (PK) 45.35% 2.21 22.73% 4.4 31.92% 3.13
+0.5 68.08% 1.47 — 31.92% 3.13
+1.0 68.08% 1.47 17.1% 5.85 14.82% 6.75
+1.5 85.18% 1.17 — 14.82% 6.75
+2.0 85.18% 1.17 9.27% 10.79 5.56% 18.0

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.