Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.05%
Fair Odds 2.56
Draw
25.59%
Fair Odds 3.91
Away Win
35.36%
Fair Odds 2.83
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.05% Fair Odds 9.05

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.56 —
Draw 3.91 —
Away Win 2.83 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.05% 9.05
2 2-1 8.56% 11.68
3 1-2 8.23% 12.15
4 1-0 7.41% 13.49
5 0-1 7.13% 14.03
6 2-2 6.38% 15.68
7 2-0 5.75% 17.4
8 0-2 5.31% 18.83
9 0-0 4.78% 20.91
10 3-1 4.42% 22.61
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.78%
20.91
7.13%
14.03
5.31%
18.83
2.64%
37.92
0.98%
101.79
0.29%
341.65
1
7.41%
13.49
11.05%
9.05
8.23%
12.15
4.09%
24.46
1.52%
65.67
0.45%
220.36
2
5.75%
17.4
8.56%
11.68
6.38%
15.68
3.17%
31.57
1.18%
84.74
0.35%
284.33
3
2.97%
33.68
4.42%
22.61
3.3%
30.34
1.64%
61.09
0.61%
164.02
0.18%
550.36
4
1.15%
86.93
1.71%
58.34
1.28%
78.31
0.63%
157.65
0.24%
423.19
0.07%
1420.45
5
0.36%
280.43
0.53%
188.18
0.4%
252.59
0.2%
508.65
0.07%
1366.12
0.02%
4587.16
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.95% · Fair: 105.31
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.46% 22.54%
1.5 43.88% 56.12%
2.5 18.86% 81.14%
3.5 6.44% 93.56%
4.5 1.81% 98.19%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.78% 20.91
1 14.54% 6.88
2 22.10% 4.52
3 22.40% 4.46
4 17.02% 5.87
5+ 19.15% 5.22
Over 2.5 58.57% Under 2.5 41.43%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.05%
Draw 25.59%
Away Win 35.36%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.57%
Under 2.5 41.43%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.02%
No 38.98%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.61% 13.14 11.66% 8.57 80.73% 1.24
-1.5 19.27% 5.19 — 80.73% 1.24
-1.0 19.27% 5.19 19.99% 5.0 60.74% 1.65
-0.5 39.26% 2.55 — 60.74% 1.65
0 (PK) 39.26% 2.55 24.11% 4.15 36.64% 2.73
+0.5 63.36% 1.58 — 36.64% 2.73
+1.0 63.36% 1.58 19.21% 5.21 17.42% 5.74
+1.5 82.58% 1.21 — 17.42% 5.74
+2.0 82.58% 1.21 10.78% 9.28 6.65% 15.05

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.