Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.75%
Fair Odds 2.8
Draw
26.03%
Fair Odds 3.84
Away Win
38.22%
Fair Odds 2.62
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.39% Fair Odds 8.78

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.8 —
Draw 3.84 —
Away Win 2.62 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.39% 8.78
2 1-2 8.48% 11.79
3 2-1 8.31% 12.03
4 0-1 7.8% 12.82
5 1-0 7.64% 13.09
6 2-2 6.19% 16.15
7 0-2 5.81% 17.21
8 2-0 5.58% 17.93
9 0-0 5.23% 19.11
10 1-3 4.21% 23.74
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.23%
19.11
7.8%
12.82
5.81%
17.21
2.89%
34.65
1.07%
93.03
0.32%
312.21
1
7.64%
13.09
11.39%
8.78
8.48%
11.79
4.21%
23.74
1.57%
63.72
0.47%
213.81
2
5.58%
17.93
8.31%
12.03
6.19%
16.15
3.08%
32.52
1.15%
87.29
0.34%
292.91
3
2.71%
36.84
4.05%
24.72
3.01%
33.18
1.5%
66.81
0.56%
179.37
0.17%
602.05
4
0.99%
100.92
1.48%
67.73
1.1%
90.91
0.55%
183.05
0.2%
491.4
0.06%
1650.17
5
0.29%
345.66
0.43%
231.96
0.32%
311.33
0.16%
626.96
0.06%
1683.5
0.02%
5649.72
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.82% · Fair: 121.7
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.78% 23.22%
1.5 42.87% 57.13%
2.5 18.12% 81.88%
3.5 6.07% 93.93%
4.5 1.68% 98.32%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.46% 22.54%
1.5 43.88% 56.12%
2.5 18.86% 81.14%
3.5 6.44% 93.56%
4.5 1.81% 98.19%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.23% 19.11
1 15.44% 6.48
2 22.77% 4.39
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.52% 6.05
5+ 17.64% 5.67
Over 2.5 56.55% Under 2.5 43.45%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.75%
Draw 26.03%
Away Win 38.22%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.55%
Under 2.5 43.45%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.47%
No 40.53%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.59% 15.17 10.9% 9.18 82.51% 1.21
-1.5 17.49% 5.72 — 82.51% 1.21
-1.0 17.49% 5.72 19.58% 5.11 62.93% 1.59
-0.5 37.07% 2.7 — 62.93% 1.59
0 (PK) 37.07% 2.7 24.53% 4.08 38.4% 2.6
+0.5 61.6% 1.62 — 38.4% 2.6
+1.0 61.6% 1.62 19.98% 5.01 18.42% 5.43
+1.5 81.58% 1.23 — 18.42% 5.43
+2.0 81.58% 1.23 11.35% 8.81 7.07% 14.15

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.