Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
28.18%
Fair Odds 3.55
Draw
27.23%
Fair Odds 3.67
Away Win
44.58%
Fair Odds 2.24
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.23% Fair Odds 8.18

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.55 —
Draw 3.67 —
Away Win 2.24 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.23% 8.18
2 0-1 10.63% 9.4
3 1-2 9.11% 10.98
4 1-0 8.21% 12.19
5 0-2 7.92% 12.62
6 0-0 7.14% 14.01
7 2-1 7.03% 14.22
8 2-2 5.24% 19.09
9 2-0 4.72% 21.19
10 1-3 4.52% 22.1
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.14%
14.01
10.63%
9.4
7.92%
12.62
3.93%
25.42
1.47%
68.24
0.44%
228.99
1
8.21%
12.19
12.23%
8.18
9.11%
10.98
4.52%
22.1
1.69%
59.33
0.5%
199.12
2
4.72%
21.19
7.03%
14.22
5.24%
19.09
2.6%
38.44
0.97%
103.19
0.29%
346.26
3
1.81%
55.28
2.7%
37.1
2.01%
49.8
1.0%
100.27
0.37%
269.18
0.11%
903.34
4
0.52%
192.31
0.77%
129.05
0.58%
173.22
0.29%
348.8
0.11%
936.33
0.03%
3144.65
5
0.12%
836.12
0.18%
561.17
0.13%
753.01
0.07%
1517.45
0.02%
4065.04
0.01%
13698.63
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.55% · Fair: 181.13
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.34% 31.66%
1.5 31.92% 68.08%
2.5 10.99% 89.01%
3.5 2.96% 97.04%
4.5 0.65% 99.35%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.46% 22.54%
1.5 43.88% 56.12%
2.5 18.86% 81.14%
3.5 6.44% 93.56%
4.5 1.81% 98.19%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.14% 14.01
1 18.84% 5.31
2 24.87% 4.02
3 21.88% 4.57
4 14.44% 6.92
5+ 12.83% 7.79
Over 2.5 49.16% Under 2.5 50.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 28.18%
Draw 27.23%
Away Win 44.58%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 49.16%
Under 2.5 50.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.94%
No 47.06%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.65% 27.41 8.06% 12.4 88.29% 1.13
-1.5 11.71% 8.54 — 88.29% 1.13
-1.0 11.71% 8.54 17.56% 5.7 70.73% 1.41
-0.5 29.27% 3.42 — 70.73% 1.41
0 (PK) 29.27% 3.42 25.71% 3.89 45.02% 2.22
+0.5 54.98% 1.82 — 45.02% 2.22
+1.0 54.98% 1.82 22.75% 4.4 22.27% 4.49
+1.5 77.73% 1.29 — 22.27% 4.49
+2.0 77.73% 1.29 13.53% 7.39 8.73% 11.45

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.