Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
21.14%
Fair Odds 4.73
Draw
27.8%
Fair Odds 3.6
Away Win
51.06%
Fair Odds 1.96
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 14.07% Fair Odds 7.11

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.73 —
Draw 3.6 —
Away Win 1.96 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 14.07% 7.11
2 1-1 12.24% 8.17
3 0-2 10.48% 9.54
4 0-0 9.44% 10.59
5 1-2 9.12% 10.97
6 1-0 8.21% 12.17
7 2-1 5.32% 18.78
8 0-3 5.21% 19.21
9 1-3 4.53% 22.08
10 2-2 3.97% 25.21
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.44%
10.59
14.07%
7.11
10.48%
9.54
5.21%
19.21
1.94%
51.57
0.58%
173.04
1
8.21%
12.17
12.24%
8.17
9.12%
10.97
4.53%
22.08
1.69%
59.28
0.5%
198.93
2
3.57%
27.99
5.32%
18.78
3.97%
25.21
1.97%
50.76
0.73%
136.26
0.22%
457.25
3
1.04%
96.5
1.54%
64.77
1.15%
86.93
0.57%
175.04
0.21%
469.92
0.06%
1577.29
4
0.23%
443.66
0.34%
297.8
0.25%
399.68
0.12%
804.51
0.05%
2159.83
0.01%
7246.38
5
0.04%
2551.02
0.06%
1712.33
0.04%
2298.85
0.02%
4629.63
0.01%
12345.68
0.0%
41666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.46% · Fair: 217.3
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 58.1% 41.9%
1.5 21.66% 78.34%
2.5 5.8% 94.2%
3.5 1.2% 98.8%
4.5 0.2% 99.8%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.46% 22.54%
1.5 43.88% 56.12%
2.5 18.86% 81.14%
3.5 6.44% 93.56%
4.5 1.81% 98.19%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.44% 10.59
1 22.28% 4.49
2 26.29% 3.80
3 20.68% 4.83
4 12.20% 8.19
5+ 9.09% 11.00
Over 2.5 41.98% Under 2.5 58.02%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 21.14%
Draw 27.80%
Away Win 51.06%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.98%
Under 2.5 58.02%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.01%
No 54.99%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.77% 56.63 5.39% 18.55 92.84% 1.08
-1.5 7.16% 13.97 — 92.84% 1.08
-1.0 7.16% 13.97 14.82% 6.75 78.02% 1.28
-0.5 21.98% 4.55 — 78.02% 1.28
0 (PK) 21.98% 4.55 26.27% 3.81 51.75% 1.93
+0.5 48.25% 2.07 — 51.75% 1.93
+1.0 48.25% 2.07 25.38% 3.94 26.37% 3.79
+1.5 73.63% 1.36 — 26.37% 3.79
+2.0 73.63% 1.36 15.81% 6.32 10.56% 9.47

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.