Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.94%
Fair Odds 2.78
Draw
26.08%
Fair Odds 3.83
Away Win
37.98%
Fair Odds 2.63
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.42% Fair Odds 8.75

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.78 —
Draw 3.83 —
Away Win 2.63 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.42% 8.75
2 1-2 8.45% 11.83
3 2-1 8.34% 11.99
4 0-1 7.82% 12.78
5 1-0 7.72% 12.96
6 2-2 6.17% 16.21
7 0-2 5.79% 17.27
8 2-0 5.63% 17.75
9 0-0 5.29% 18.92
10 1-3 4.17% 23.98
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
7.82%
12.78
5.79%
17.27
2.86%
35.01
1.06%
94.63
0.31%
319.69
1
7.72%
12.96
11.42%
8.75
8.45%
11.83
4.17%
23.98
1.54%
64.81
0.46%
218.96
2
5.63%
17.75
8.34%
11.99
6.17%
16.21
3.04%
32.85
1.13%
88.78
0.33%
299.94
3
2.74%
36.47
4.06%
24.64
3.0%
33.3
1.48%
67.5
0.55%
182.42
0.16%
616.14
4
1.0%
99.91
1.48%
67.51
1.1%
91.23
0.54%
184.91
0.2%
499.75
0.06%
1689.19
5
0.29%
342.11
0.43%
231.21
0.32%
312.4
0.16%
633.31
0.06%
1712.33
0.02%
5780.35
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.81% · Fair: 123.75
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.78% 23.22%
1.5 42.87% 57.13%
2.5 18.12% 81.88%
3.5 6.07% 93.93%
4.5 1.68% 98.32%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.24% 22.76%
1.5 43.55% 56.45%
2.5 18.61% 81.39%
3.5 6.32% 93.68%
4.5 1.76% 98.23%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.48% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.94%
Draw 26.08%
Away Win 37.98%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.3%
No 40.7%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.64% 15.06 10.96% 9.12 82.4% 1.21
-1.5 17.6% 5.68 — 82.4% 1.21
-1.0 17.6% 5.68 19.66% 5.09 62.73% 1.59
-0.5 37.27% 2.68 — 62.73% 1.59
0 (PK) 37.27% 2.68 24.58% 4.07 38.15% 2.62
+0.5 61.85% 1.62 — 38.15% 2.62
+1.0 61.85% 1.62 19.93% 5.02 18.22% 5.49
+1.5 81.78% 1.22 — 18.22% 5.49
+2.0 81.78% 1.22 11.26% 8.88 6.96% 14.38

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.