Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.34%
Fair Odds 3.41
Draw
27.19%
Fair Odds 3.68
Away Win
43.47%
Fair Odds 2.3
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.2% Fair Odds 8.2

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.41 —
Draw 3.68 —
Away Win 2.3 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.2% 8.2
2 0-1 10.25% 9.76
3 1-2 9.03% 11.08
4 1-0 8.24% 12.13
5 0-2 7.58% 13.18
6 2-1 7.26% 13.78
7 0-0 6.93% 14.44
8 2-2 5.37% 18.62
9 2-0 4.9% 20.39
10 1-3 4.45% 22.46
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.93%
14.44
10.25%
9.76
7.58%
13.18
3.74%
26.73
1.38%
72.23
0.41%
244.02
1
8.24%
12.13
12.2%
8.2
9.03%
11.08
4.45%
22.46
1.65%
60.7
0.49%
205.04
2
4.9%
20.39
7.26%
13.78
5.37%
18.62
2.65%
37.75
0.98%
102.02
0.29%
344.59
3
1.94%
51.41
2.88%
34.74
2.13%
46.94
1.05%
95.16
0.39%
257.2
0.12%
868.81
4
0.58%
172.83
0.86%
116.77
0.63%
157.8
0.31%
319.9
0.12%
864.3
0.03%
2923.98
5
0.14%
726.22
0.2%
490.68
0.15%
663.13
0.07%
1344.09
0.03%
3636.36
0.01%
12345.68
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.56% · Fair: 178.06
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.58% 30.42%
1.5 33.38% 66.62%
2.5 11.84% 88.16%
3.5 3.29% 96.71%
4.5 0.75% 99.25%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.24% 22.76%
1.5 43.55% 56.45%
2.5 18.61% 81.39%
3.5 6.32% 93.68%
4.5 1.76% 98.23%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.93% 14.44
1 18.49% 5.41
2 24.68% 4.05
3 21.97% 4.55
4 14.66% 6.82
5+ 13.27% 7.54
Over 2.5 49.9% Under 2.5 50.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.34%
Draw 27.19%
Away Win 43.47%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 49.9%
Under 2.5 50.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 53.74%
No 46.26%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.01% 24.95 8.5% 11.77 87.5% 1.14
-1.5 12.5% 8.0 — 87.5% 1.14
-1.0 12.5% 8.0 17.97% 5.56 69.53% 1.44
-0.5 30.47% 3.28 — 69.53% 1.44
0 (PK) 30.47% 3.28 25.67% 3.9 43.86% 2.28
+0.5 56.14% 1.78 — 43.86% 2.28
+1.0 56.14% 1.78 22.35% 4.47 21.51% 4.65
+1.5 78.49% 1.27 — 21.51% 4.65
+2.0 78.49% 1.27 13.14% 7.61 8.37% 11.95

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.