Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
27.1%
Fair Odds 3.69
Draw
27.47%
Fair Odds 3.64
Away Win
45.44%
Fair Odds 2.2
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.34% Fair Odds 8.11

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.69 —
Draw 3.64 —
Away Win 2.2 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.34% 8.11
2 0-1 11.21% 8.92
3 1-2 9.13% 10.95
4 1-0 8.34% 12.0
5 0-2 8.3% 12.05
6 0-0 7.58% 13.2
7 2-1 6.78% 14.74
8 2-2 5.02% 19.92
9 2-0 4.58% 21.81
10 1-3 4.5% 22.2
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.58%
13.2
11.21%
8.92
8.3%
12.05
4.09%
24.43
1.51%
66.02
0.45%
223.02
1
8.34%
12.0
12.34%
8.11
9.13%
10.95
4.5%
22.2
1.67%
60.01
0.49%
202.76
2
4.58%
21.81
6.78%
14.74
5.02%
19.92
2.48%
40.37
0.92%
109.11
0.27%
368.6
3
1.68%
59.49
2.49%
40.2
1.84%
54.32
0.91%
110.11
0.34%
297.62
0.1%
1005.03
4
0.46%
216.31
0.68%
146.18
0.51%
197.51
0.25%
400.32
0.09%
1082.25
0.03%
3649.64
5
0.1%
983.28
0.15%
664.45
0.11%
897.67
0.05%
1821.49
0.02%
4926.11
0.01%
16666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.51% · Fair: 194.51
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 66.71% 33.29%
1.5 30.1% 69.9%
2.5 9.96% 90.04%
3.5 2.57% 97.43%
4.5 0.54% 99.46%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.24% 22.76%
1.5 43.55% 56.45%
2.5 18.61% 81.39%
3.5 6.32% 93.68%
4.5 1.76% 98.23%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.58% 13.20
1 19.55% 5.12
2 25.22% 3.97
3 21.69% 4.61
4 13.99% 7.15
5+ 11.98% 8.35
Over 2.5 47.65% Under 2.5 52.35%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 27.10%
Draw 27.47%
Away Win 45.44%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 47.65%
Under 2.5 52.35%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.53%
No 48.47%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.28% 30.47 7.64% 13.09 89.08% 1.12
-1.5 10.92% 9.16 — 89.08% 1.12
-1.0 10.92% 9.16 17.23% 5.8 71.85% 1.39
-0.5 28.15% 3.55 — 71.85% 1.39
0 (PK) 28.15% 3.55 25.94% 3.85 45.91% 2.18
+0.5 54.09% 1.85 — 45.91% 2.18
+1.0 54.09% 1.85 23.19% 4.31 22.72% 4.4
+1.5 77.28% 1.29 — 22.72% 4.4
+2.0 77.28% 1.29 13.83% 7.23 8.9% 11.24

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.