Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.2%
Fair Odds 2.92
Draw
26.5%
Fair Odds 3.77
Away Win
39.3%
Fair Odds 2.54
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.73% Fair Odds 8.52

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.92 —
Draw 3.77 —
Away Win 2.54 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.73% 8.52
2 1-2 8.62% 11.59
3 0-1 8.5% 11.76
4 2-1 8.1% 12.35
5 1-0 7.98% 12.53
6 0-2 6.25% 16.0
7 2-2 5.95% 16.8
8 0-0 5.78% 17.29
9 2-0 5.51% 18.16
10 1-3 4.23% 23.66
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.78%
17.29
8.5%
11.76
6.25%
16.0
3.06%
32.65
1.13%
88.86
0.33%
302.21
1
7.98%
12.53
11.73%
8.52
8.62%
11.59
4.23%
23.66
1.55%
64.39
0.46%
219.01
2
5.51%
18.16
8.1%
12.35
5.95%
16.8
2.92%
34.29
1.07%
93.32
0.32%
317.36
3
2.53%
39.47
3.72%
26.85
2.74%
36.53
1.34%
74.55
0.49%
202.84
0.14%
690.13
4
0.87%
114.4
1.28%
77.83
0.94%
105.89
0.46%
216.08
0.17%
587.89
0.05%
2000.0
5
0.24%
414.42
0.35%
282.01
0.26%
383.58
0.13%
783.09
0.05%
2132.2
0.01%
7246.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.7% · Fair: 142.45
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.01% 22.99%
1.5 43.21% 56.79%
2.5 18.37% 81.63%
3.5 6.19% 93.81%
4.5 1.72% 98.28%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.78% 17.29
1 16.49% 6.07
2 23.49% 4.26
3 22.32% 4.48
4 15.90% 6.29
5+ 16.02% 6.24
Over 2.5 54.24% Under 2.5 45.76%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.20%
Draw 26.50%
Away Win 39.30%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 54.24%
Under 2.5 45.76%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 57.63%
No 42.37%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.83% 17.15 10.32% 9.69 83.85% 1.19
-1.5 16.15% 6.19 — 83.85% 1.19
-1.0 16.15% 6.19 19.33% 5.17 64.52% 1.55
-0.5 35.48% 2.82 — 64.52% 1.55
0 (PK) 35.48% 2.82 25.0% 4.0 39.53% 2.53
+0.5 60.47% 1.65 — 39.53% 2.53
+1.0 60.47% 1.65 20.59% 4.86 18.94% 5.28
+1.5 81.06% 1.23 — 18.94% 5.28
+2.0 81.06% 1.23 11.71% 8.54 7.23% 13.83

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.