Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.76%
Fair Odds 3.25
Draw
27.08%
Fair Odds 3.69
Away Win
42.16%
Fair Odds 2.37
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.13% Fair Odds 8.25

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.25 —
Draw 3.69 —
Away Win 2.37 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.13% 8.25
2 0-1 9.78% 10.22
3 1-2 8.91% 11.22
4 1-0 8.25% 12.12
5 2-1 7.52% 13.3
6 0-2 7.19% 13.91
7 0-0 6.65% 15.03
8 2-2 5.53% 18.09
9 2-0 5.12% 19.55
10 1-3 4.37% 22.89
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.65%
15.03
9.78%
10.22
7.19%
13.91
3.52%
28.39
1.29%
77.24
0.38%
262.74
1
8.25%
12.12
12.13%
8.25
8.91%
11.22
4.37%
22.89
1.61%
62.3
0.47%
211.91
2
5.12%
19.55
7.52%
13.3
5.53%
18.09
2.71%
36.92
1.0%
100.47
0.29%
341.76
3
2.11%
47.3
3.11%
32.17
2.28%
43.78
1.12%
89.33
0.41%
243.07
0.12%
827.13
4
0.66%
152.58
0.96%
103.79
0.71%
141.2
0.35%
288.18
0.13%
784.31
0.04%
2666.67
5
0.16%
615.01
0.24%
418.59
0.18%
569.48
0.09%
1161.44
0.03%
3164.56
0.01%
10752.69
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.58% · Fair: 172.24
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.06% 28.94%
1.5 35.18% 64.82%
2.5 12.93% 87.07%
3.5 3.73% 96.27%
4.5 0.88% 99.12%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.01% 22.99%
1.5 43.21% 56.79%
2.5 18.37% 81.63%
3.5 6.19% 93.81%
4.5 1.72% 98.28%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.65% 15.03
1 18.03% 5.55
2 24.43% 4.09
3 22.07% 4.53
4 14.95% 6.69
5+ 13.86% 7.22
Over 2.5 50.88% Under 2.5 49.12%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.76%
Draw 27.08%
Away Win 42.16%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.88%
Under 2.5 49.12%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.72%
No 45.28%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.48% 22.33 9.02% 11.08 86.5% 1.16
-1.5 13.5% 7.41 — 86.5% 1.16
-1.0 13.5% 7.41 18.44% 5.42 68.06% 1.47
-0.5 31.94% 3.13 — 68.06% 1.47
0 (PK) 31.94% 3.13 25.57% 3.91 42.5% 2.35
+0.5 57.5% 1.74 — 42.5% 2.35
+1.0 57.5% 1.74 21.85% 4.58 20.64% 4.84
+1.5 79.36% 1.26 — 20.64% 4.84
+2.0 79.36% 1.26 12.68% 7.88 7.96% 12.56

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.