Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.51%
Fair Odds 3.28
Draw
27.12%
Fair Odds 3.69
Away Win
42.37%
Fair Odds 2.36
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.15% Fair Odds 8.23

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.28 —
Draw 3.69 —
Away Win 2.36 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.15% 8.23
2 0-1 9.88% 10.12
3 1-2 8.93% 11.2
4 1-0 8.27% 12.1
5 2-1 7.47% 13.38
6 0-2 7.26% 13.77
7 0-0 6.72% 14.88
8 2-2 5.49% 18.21
9 2-0 5.08% 19.67
10 1-3 4.38% 22.85
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.72%
14.88
9.88%
10.12
7.26%
13.77
3.56%
28.11
1.31%
76.48
0.38%
260.15
1
8.27%
12.1
12.15%
8.23
8.93%
11.2
4.38%
22.85
1.61%
62.18
0.47%
211.51
2
5.08%
19.67
7.47%
13.38
5.49%
18.21
2.69%
37.16
0.99%
101.1
0.29%
343.88
3
2.08%
47.98
3.06%
32.64
2.25%
44.4
1.1%
90.62
0.41%
246.61
0.12%
838.93
4
0.64%
156.03
0.94%
106.13
0.69%
144.4
0.34%
294.72
0.12%
801.92
0.04%
2724.8
5
0.16%
634.12
0.23%
431.41
0.17%
586.85
0.08%
1197.6
0.03%
3257.33
0.01%
11111.11
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.57% · Fair: 174.31
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.01% 22.99%
1.5 43.21% 56.79%
2.5 18.37% 81.63%
3.5 6.19% 93.81%
4.5 1.72% 98.28%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.72% 14.88
1 18.15% 5.51
2 24.50% 4.08
3 22.05% 4.54
4 14.88% 6.72
5+ 13.71% 7.29
Over 2.5 50.64% Under 2.5 49.36%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.51%
Draw 27.12%
Away Win 42.37%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.64%
Under 2.5 49.36%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.5%
No 45.5%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.39% 22.79 8.93% 11.2 86.68% 1.15
-1.5 13.32% 7.51 — 86.68% 1.15
-1.0 13.32% 7.51 18.36% 5.45 68.32% 1.46
-0.5 31.68% 3.16 — 68.32% 1.46
0 (PK) 31.68% 3.16 25.6% 3.91 42.72% 2.34
+0.5 57.28% 1.75 — 42.72% 2.34
+1.0 57.28% 1.75 21.95% 4.56 20.77% 4.81
+1.5 79.23% 1.26 — 20.77% 4.81
+2.0 79.23% 1.26 12.76% 7.84 8.01% 12.48

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.