Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
23.21%
Fair Odds 4.31
Draw
27.93%
Fair Odds 3.58
Away Win
48.86%
Fair Odds 2.05
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 13.2% Fair Odds 7.57

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.31 —
Draw 3.58 —
Away Win 2.05 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 13.2% 7.57
2 1-1 12.41% 8.06
3 0-2 9.7% 10.3
4 1-2 9.12% 10.96
5 0-0 8.98% 11.13
6 1-0 8.44% 11.84
7 2-1 5.83% 17.14
8 0-3 4.75% 21.03
9 1-3 4.47% 22.37
10 2-2 4.29% 23.32
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.98%
11.13
13.2%
7.57
9.7%
10.3
4.75%
21.03
1.75%
57.22
0.51%
194.63
1
8.44%
11.84
12.41%
8.06
9.12%
10.96
4.47%
22.37
1.64%
60.88
0.48%
207.08
2
3.97%
25.2
5.83%
17.14
4.29%
23.32
2.1%
47.6
0.77%
129.53
0.23%
440.53
3
1.24%
80.43
1.83%
54.71
1.34%
74.44
0.66%
151.93
0.24%
413.39
0.07%
1406.47
4
0.29%
342.23
0.43%
232.83
0.32%
316.76
0.15%
646.41
0.06%
1760.56
0.02%
5988.02
5
0.05%
1821.49
0.08%
1239.16
0.06%
1686.34
0.03%
3436.43
0.01%
9345.79
0.0%
32258.06
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.45% · Fair: 223.31
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 60.94% 39.06%
1.5 24.22% 75.78%
2.5 6.96% 93.04%
3.5 1.55% 98.45%
4.5 0.28% 99.72%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 77.01% 22.99%
1.5 43.21% 56.79%
2.5 18.37% 81.63%
3.5 6.19% 93.81%
4.5 1.72% 98.28%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.98% 11.13
1 21.65% 4.62
2 26.08% 3.83
3 20.95% 4.77
4 12.62% 7.92
5+ 9.71% 10.30
Over 2.5 43.29% Under 2.5 56.71%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 23.21%
Draw 27.93%
Away Win 48.86%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.29%
Under 2.5 56.71%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.93%
No 53.07%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.2% 45.44 6.14% 16.28 91.66% 1.09
-1.5 8.34% 11.99 — 91.66% 1.09
-1.0 8.34% 11.99 15.78% 6.34 75.87% 1.32
-0.5 24.13% 4.14 — 75.87% 1.32
0 (PK) 24.13% 4.14 26.4% 3.79 49.47% 2.02
+0.5 50.53% 1.98 — 49.47% 2.02
+1.0 50.53% 1.98 24.68% 4.05 24.79% 4.03
+1.5 75.21% 1.33 — 24.79% 4.03
+2.0 75.21% 1.33 15.02% 6.66 9.77% 10.24

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.