Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.22%
Fair Odds 2.26
Draw
24.59%
Fair Odds 4.07
Away Win
31.18%
Fair Odds 3.21
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.31% Fair Odds 9.7

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.26 —
Draw 4.07 —
Away Win 3.21 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.31% 9.7
2 2-1 9.02% 11.08
3 1-2 7.53% 13.29
4 1-0 7.06% 14.16
5 2-2 6.59% 15.18
6 2-0 6.18% 16.18
7 0-1 5.89% 16.97
8 3-1 5.26% 19.0
9 0-2 4.3% 23.25
10 0-0 4.04% 24.78
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.04%
24.78
5.89%
16.97
4.3%
23.25
2.09%
47.77
0.76%
130.89
0.22%
448.23
1
7.06%
14.16
10.31%
9.7
7.53%
13.29
3.66%
27.3
1.34%
74.79
0.39%
256.15
2
6.18%
16.18
9.02%
11.08
6.59%
15.18
3.21%
31.2
1.17%
85.48
0.34%
292.74
3
3.6%
27.74
5.26%
19.0
3.84%
26.03
1.87%
53.48
0.68%
146.52
0.2%
501.76
4
1.58%
63.41
2.3%
43.43
1.68%
59.49
0.82%
122.25
0.3%
334.9
0.09%
1146.79
5
0.55%
181.16
0.81%
124.08
0.59%
169.98
0.29%
349.28
0.1%
956.94
0.03%
3278.69
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.3% · Fair: 76.86
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.62% 17.38%
1.5 52.21% 47.79%
2.5 25.6% 74.4%
3.5 10.08% 89.92%
4.5 3.29% 96.71%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.78% 23.22%
1.5 42.87% 57.13%
2.5 18.12% 81.88%
3.5 6.07% 93.93%
4.5 1.68% 98.32%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.04% 24.78
1 12.95% 7.72
2 20.79% 4.81
3 22.25% 4.49
4 17.85% 5.60
5+ 22.12% 4.52
Over 2.5 62.22% Under 2.5 37.78%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.22%
Draw 24.59%
Away Win 31.18%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 62.22%
Under 2.5 37.78%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 63.43%
No 36.57%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.3% 9.71 13.44% 7.44 76.26% 1.31
-1.5 23.74% 4.21 — 76.26% 1.31
-1.0 23.74% 4.21 20.86% 4.79 55.4% 1.81
-0.5 44.6% 2.24 — 55.4% 1.81
0 (PK) 44.6% 2.24 23.13% 4.32 32.27% 3.1
+0.5 67.73% 1.48 — 32.27% 3.1
+1.0 67.73% 1.48 17.4% 5.75 14.86% 6.73
+1.5 85.14% 1.17 — 14.86% 6.73
+2.0 85.14% 1.17 9.36% 10.69 5.51% 18.16

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.