Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.93%
Fair Odds 2.57
Draw
25.87%
Fair Odds 3.87
Away Win
35.2%
Fair Odds 2.84
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.27% Fair Odds 8.87

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.57 —
Draw 3.87 —
Away Win 2.84 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.27% 8.87
2 2-1 8.57% 11.67
3 1-2 8.23% 12.15
4 1-0 7.72% 12.95
5 0-1 7.42% 13.48
6 2-2 6.25% 15.99
7 2-0 5.87% 17.04
8 0-2 5.41% 18.47
9 0-0 5.08% 19.69
10 3-1 4.34% 23.04
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.08%
19.69
7.42%
13.48
5.41%
18.47
2.63%
37.96
0.96%
103.99
0.28%
356.13
1
7.72%
12.95
11.27%
8.87
8.23%
12.15
4.0%
24.97
1.46%
68.41
0.43%
234.3
2
5.87%
17.04
8.57%
11.67
6.25%
15.99
3.04%
32.86
1.11%
90.02
0.32%
308.26
3
2.97%
33.64
4.34%
23.04
3.17%
31.56
1.54%
64.85
0.56%
177.68
0.16%
608.64
4
1.13%
88.52
1.65%
60.63
1.2%
83.06
0.59%
170.65
0.21%
467.51
0.06%
1600.0
5
0.34%
291.21
0.5%
199.44
0.37%
273.22
0.18%
561.48
0.07%
1538.46
0.02%
5263.16
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.86% · Fair: 115.73
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.13% 21.87%
1.5 44.88% 55.12%
2.5 19.62% 80.38%
3.5 6.82% 93.18%
4.5 1.95% 98.05%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.78% 23.22%
1.5 42.87% 57.13%
2.5 18.12% 81.88%
3.5 6.07% 93.93%
4.5 1.68% 98.32%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.08% 19.69
1 15.14% 6.61
2 22.55% 4.43
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.69% 5.99
5+ 18.14% 5.51
Over 2.5 57.23% Under 2.5 42.77%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.93%
Draw 25.87%
Away Win 35.20%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.23%
Under 2.5 42.77%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.98%
No 40.02%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.41% 13.49 11.61% 8.61 80.98% 1.23
-1.5 19.02% 5.26 — 80.98% 1.23
-1.0 19.02% 5.26 20.11% 4.97 60.87% 1.64
-0.5 39.13% 2.56 — 60.87% 1.64
0 (PK) 39.13% 2.56 24.38% 4.1 36.49% 2.74
+0.5 63.51% 1.57 — 36.49% 2.74
+1.0 63.51% 1.57 19.32% 5.18 17.17% 5.82
+1.5 82.83% 1.21 — 17.17% 5.82
+2.0 82.83% 1.21 10.71% 9.34 6.46% 15.48

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.