Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.4%
Fair Odds 2.99
Draw
26.74%
Fair Odds 3.74
Away Win
39.86%
Fair Odds 2.51
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.9% Fair Odds 8.41

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.99 —
Draw 3.74 —
Away Win 2.51 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.9% 8.41
2 0-1 8.88% 11.26
3 1-2 8.68% 11.51
4 1-0 8.15% 12.27
5 2-1 7.97% 12.55
6 0-2 6.48% 15.43
7 0-0 6.08% 16.44
8 2-2 5.82% 17.19
9 2-0 5.46% 18.32
10 1-3 4.23% 23.66
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.08%
16.44
8.88%
11.26
6.48%
15.43
3.15%
31.7
1.15%
86.86
0.34%
297.44
1
8.15%
12.27
11.9%
8.41
8.68%
11.51
4.23%
23.66
1.54%
64.82
0.45%
221.98
2
5.46%
18.32
7.97%
12.55
5.82%
17.19
2.83%
35.31
1.03%
96.75
0.3%
331.35
3
2.44%
41.01
3.56%
28.09
2.6%
38.48
1.26%
79.06
0.46%
216.59
0.13%
741.84
4
0.82%
122.41
1.19%
83.84
0.87%
114.85
0.42%
236.02
0.15%
646.41
0.05%
2212.39
5
0.22%
456.83
0.32%
312.89
0.23%
428.63
0.11%
880.28
0.04%
2415.46
0.01%
8264.46
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.65% · Fair: 153.99
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.78% 23.22%
1.5 42.87% 57.13%
2.5 18.12% 81.88%
3.5 6.07% 93.93%
4.5 1.68% 98.32%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.08% 16.44
1 17.03% 5.87
2 23.84% 4.20
3 22.25% 4.49
4 15.57% 6.42
5+ 15.23% 6.57
Over 2.5 53.05% Under 2.5 46.95%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.40%
Draw 26.74%
Away Win 39.86%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 53.05%
Under 2.5 46.95%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.67%
No 43.33%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.47% 18.3 10.01% 9.99 84.52% 1.18
-1.5 15.48% 6.46 — 84.52% 1.18
-1.0 15.48% 6.46 19.19% 5.21 65.33% 1.53
-0.5 34.67% 2.88 — 65.33% 1.53
0 (PK) 34.67% 2.88 25.23% 3.96 40.11% 2.49
+0.5 59.89% 1.67 — 40.11% 2.49
+1.0 59.89% 1.67 20.9% 4.78 19.2% 5.21
+1.5 80.8% 1.24 — 19.2% 5.21
+2.0 80.8% 1.24 11.89% 8.41 7.31% 13.67

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.