Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
21.05%
Fair Odds 4.75
Draw
28.17%
Fair Odds 3.55
Away Win
50.77%
Fair Odds 1.97
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 14.49% Fair Odds 6.9

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.75 —
Draw 3.55 —
Away Win 1.97 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 14.49% 6.9
2 1-1 12.32% 8.12
3 0-2 10.58% 9.45
4 0-0 9.93% 10.07
5 1-2 8.99% 11.12
6 1-0 8.44% 11.85
7 2-1 5.24% 19.1
8 0-3 5.15% 19.42
9 1-3 4.38% 22.85
10 2-2 3.82% 26.17
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.93%
10.07
14.49%
6.9
10.58%
9.45
5.15%
19.42
1.88%
53.21
0.55%
182.25
1
8.44%
11.85
12.32%
8.12
8.99%
11.12
4.38%
22.85
1.6%
62.61
0.47%
214.41
2
3.59%
27.89
5.24%
19.1
3.82%
26.17
1.86%
53.77
0.68%
147.3
0.2%
504.54
3
1.02%
98.43
1.48%
67.42
1.08%
92.35
0.53%
189.75
0.19%
520.02
0.06%
1779.36
4
0.22%
463.18
0.32%
317.26
0.23%
434.59
0.11%
892.86
0.04%
2444.99
0.01%
8403.36
5
0.04%
2724.8
0.05%
1865.67
0.04%
2557.54
0.02%
5263.16
0.01%
14492.75
0.0%
50000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.42% · Fair: 239.64
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 57.26% 42.74%
1.5 20.93% 79.07%
2.5 5.49% 94.51%
3.5 1.11% 98.89%
4.5 0.18% 99.82%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.78% 23.22%
1.5 42.87% 57.13%
2.5 18.12% 81.88%
3.5 6.07% 93.93%
4.5 1.68% 98.32%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.93% 10.07
1 22.93% 4.36
2 26.48% 3.78
3 20.39% 4.90
4 11.78% 8.49
5+ 8.49% 11.78
Over 2.5 40.66% Under 2.5 59.34%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 21.05%
Draw 28.17%
Away Win 50.77%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 40.66%
Under 2.5 59.34%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 43.96%
No 56.04%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.7% 58.81 5.32% 18.8 92.98% 1.08
-1.5 7.02% 14.25 — 92.98% 1.08
-1.0 7.02% 14.25 14.87% 6.72 78.11% 1.28
-0.5 21.89% 4.57 — 78.11% 1.28
0 (PK) 21.89% 4.57 26.64% 3.75 51.47% 1.94
+0.5 48.53% 2.06 — 51.47% 1.94
+1.0 48.53% 2.06 25.55% 3.91 25.92% 3.86
+1.5 74.08% 1.35 — 25.92% 3.86
+2.0 74.08% 1.35 15.69% 6.37 10.23% 9.78

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.