Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
51.96%
Fair Odds 1.92
Draw
22.41%
Fair Odds 4.46
Away Win
25.63%
Fair Odds 3.9
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.18% Fair Odds 10.89

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.92 —
Draw 4.46 —
Away Win 3.9 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.18% 10.89
2 1-1 8.75% 11.43
3 2-2 6.66% 15.02
4 3-1 6.43% 15.55
5 1-2 6.34% 15.77
6 2-0 6.33% 15.79
7 1-0 6.03% 16.58
8 3-2 4.66% 21.46
9 3-0 4.43% 22.55
10 0-1 4.17% 24.01
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.87%
34.81
4.17%
24.01
3.02%
33.12
1.46%
68.52
0.53%
189.0
0.15%
651.89
1
6.03%
16.58
8.75%
11.43
6.34%
15.77
3.06%
32.63
1.11%
90.0
0.32%
310.37
2
6.33%
15.79
9.18%
10.89
6.66%
15.02
3.22%
31.07
1.17%
85.72
0.34%
295.6
3
4.43%
22.55
6.43%
15.55
4.66%
21.46
2.25%
44.39
0.82%
122.46
0.24%
422.3
4
2.33%
42.96
3.38%
29.63
2.45%
40.87
1.18%
84.55
0.43%
233.26
0.12%
804.51
5
0.98%
102.29
1.42%
70.54
1.03%
97.3
0.5%
201.33
0.18%
555.25
0.05%
1915.71
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.41% · Fair: 41.41
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 87.75% 12.25%
1.5 62.04% 37.96%
2.5 35.04% 64.96%
3.5 16.13% 83.86%
4.5 6.21% 93.79%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.87% 34.81
1 10.20% 9.81
2 18.10% 5.52
3 21.42% 4.67
4 19.01% 5.26
5+ 28.40% 3.52
Over 2.5 68.83% Under 2.5 31.17%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 51.96%
Draw 22.41%
Away Win 25.63%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 68.83%
Under 2.5 31.17%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.17%
No 32.83%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 15.51% 6.45 15.78% 6.34 68.72% 1.46
-1.5 31.28% 3.2 — 68.72% 1.46
-1.0 31.28% 3.2 21.26% 4.7 47.46% 2.11
-0.5 52.54% 1.9 — 47.46% 2.11
0 (PK) 52.54% 1.9 21.02% 4.76 26.44% 3.78
+0.5 73.56% 1.36 — 26.44% 3.78
+1.0 73.56% 1.36 14.68% 6.81 11.76% 8.5
+1.5 88.24% 1.13 — 11.76% 8.5
+2.0 88.24% 1.13 7.52% 13.3 4.24% 23.59

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.