Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.76%
Fair Odds 2.19
Draw
24.25%
Fair Odds 4.12
Away Win
29.98%
Fair Odds 3.34
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.08% Fair Odds 9.93

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.19 —
Draw 4.12 —
Away Win 3.34 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.08% 9.93
2 2-1 9.12% 10.97
3 1-2 7.3% 13.69
4 1-0 6.95% 14.39
5 2-2 6.61% 15.13
6 2-0 6.29% 15.9
7 0-1 5.57% 17.97
8 3-1 5.5% 18.18
9 0-2 4.04% 24.78
10 3-2 3.99% 25.07
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.84%
26.05
5.57%
17.97
4.04%
24.78
1.95%
51.27
0.71%
141.42
0.21%
487.57
1
6.95%
14.39
10.08%
9.93
7.3%
13.69
3.53%
28.32
1.28%
78.14
0.37%
269.47
2
6.29%
15.9
9.12%
10.97
6.61%
15.13
3.2%
31.3
1.16%
86.34
0.34%
297.71
3
3.79%
26.36
5.5%
18.18
3.99%
25.07
1.93%
51.88
0.7%
143.1
0.2%
493.58
4
1.72%
58.25
2.49%
40.17
1.8%
55.41
0.87%
114.64
0.32%
316.26
0.09%
1090.51
5
0.62%
160.9
0.9%
110.98
0.65%
153.07
0.32%
316.66
0.11%
873.36
0.03%
3012.05
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.44% · Fair: 69.51
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.63% 16.37%
1.5 54.01% 45.99%
2.5 27.21% 72.79%
3.5 11.03% 88.97%
4.5 3.71% 96.29%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.84% 26.05
1 12.51% 7.99
2 20.40% 4.90
3 22.17% 4.51
4 18.07% 5.54
5+ 23.01% 4.35
Over 2.5 63.25% Under 2.5 36.75%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.76%
Draw 24.25%
Away Win 29.98%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 63.25%
Under 2.5 36.75%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.02%
No 35.98%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.19% 8.94 13.95% 7.17 74.86% 1.34
-1.5 25.14% 3.98 — 74.86% 1.34
-1.0 25.14% 3.98 21.05% 4.75 53.81% 1.86
-0.5 46.19% 2.17 — 53.81% 1.86
0 (PK) 46.19% 2.17 22.8% 4.39 31.01% 3.22
+0.5 68.99% 1.45 — 31.01% 3.22
+1.0 68.99% 1.45 16.86% 5.93 14.14% 7.07
+1.5 85.86% 1.16 — 14.14% 7.07
+2.0 85.86% 1.16 8.95% 11.17 5.19% 19.26

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.