Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.32%
Fair Odds 2.21
Draw
24.38%
Fair Odds 4.1
Away Win
30.31%
Fair Odds 3.3
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.17% Fair Odds 9.84

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.21 —
Draw 4.1 —
Away Win 3.3 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.17% 9.84
2 2-1 9.1% 10.99
3 1-2 7.37% 13.57
4 1-0 7.01% 14.26
5 2-2 6.6% 15.16
6 2-0 6.27% 15.94
7 0-1 5.68% 17.61
8 3-1 5.43% 18.42
9 0-2 4.12% 24.29
10 3-2 3.94% 25.41
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.92%
25.53
5.68%
17.61
4.12%
24.29
1.99%
50.25
0.72%
138.62
0.21%
478.01
1
7.01%
14.26
10.17%
9.84
7.37%
13.57
3.56%
28.07
1.29%
77.45
0.37%
267.02
2
6.27%
15.94
9.1%
10.99
6.6%
15.16
3.19%
31.37
1.16%
86.54
0.34%
298.42
3
3.74%
26.71
5.43%
18.42
3.94%
25.41
1.9%
52.57
0.69%
145.03
0.2%
500.0
4
1.68%
59.69
2.43%
41.17
1.76%
56.78
0.85%
117.48
0.31%
324.04
0.09%
1117.32
5
0.6%
166.72
0.87%
115.0
0.63%
158.6
0.3%
328.19
0.11%
904.98
0.03%
3125.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.39% · Fair: 72.1
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.3% 16.7%
1.5 53.42% 46.58%
2.5 26.67% 73.33%
3.5 10.71% 89.29%
4.5 3.57% 96.43%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.92% 25.53
1 12.69% 7.88
2 20.56% 4.86
3 22.20% 4.50
4 17.98% 5.56
5+ 22.65% 4.41
Over 2.5 62.84% Under 2.5 37.16%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.32%
Draw 24.38%
Away Win 30.31%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 62.84%
Under 2.5 37.16%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 63.76%
No 36.24%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.91% 9.17 13.8% 7.24 75.28% 1.33
-1.5 24.71% 4.05 — 75.28% 1.33
-1.0 24.71% 4.05 21.02% 4.76 54.27% 1.84
-0.5 45.73% 2.19 — 54.27% 1.84
0 (PK) 45.73% 2.19 22.92% 4.36 31.35% 3.19
+0.5 68.65% 1.46 — 31.35% 3.19
+1.0 68.65% 1.46 17.02% 5.87 14.32% 6.98
+1.5 85.68% 1.17 — 14.32% 6.98
+2.0 85.68% 1.17 9.06% 11.04 5.27% 18.99

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.