Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.76%
Fair Odds 2.45
Draw
25.54%
Fair Odds 3.92
Away Win
33.7%
Fair Odds 2.97
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.03% Fair Odds 9.07

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.45 —
Draw 3.92 —
Away Win 2.97 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.03% 9.07
2 2-1 8.77% 11.41
3 1-2 8.0% 12.51
4 1-0 7.61% 13.15
5 0-1 6.94% 14.42
6 2-2 6.36% 15.73
7 2-0 6.05% 16.54
8 0-2 5.03% 19.89
9 0-0 4.78% 20.91
10 3-1 4.65% 21.52
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.78%
20.91
6.94%
14.42
5.03%
19.89
2.43%
41.14
0.88%
113.49
0.26%
391.39
1
7.61%
13.15
11.03%
9.07
8.0%
12.51
3.86%
25.88
1.4%
71.38
0.41%
246.12
2
6.05%
16.54
8.77%
11.41
6.36%
15.73
3.07%
32.55
1.11%
89.79
0.32%
309.6
3
3.2%
31.2
4.65%
21.52
3.37%
29.68
1.63%
61.41
0.59%
169.41
0.17%
584.11
4
1.27%
78.5
1.85%
54.14
1.34%
74.68
0.65%
154.49
0.23%
426.26
0.07%
1470.59
5
0.41%
246.85
0.59%
170.24
0.43%
234.85
0.21%
485.91
0.07%
1340.48
0.02%
4629.63
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.96% · Fair: 103.82
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.61% 20.39%
1.5 47.18% 52.82%
2.5 21.41% 78.59%
3.5 7.74% 92.26%
4.5 2.31% 97.69%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.78% 20.91
1 14.54% 6.88
2 22.10% 4.52
3 22.40% 4.46
4 17.02% 5.87
5+ 19.15% 5.22
Over 2.5 58.57% Under 2.5 41.43%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.76%
Draw 25.54%
Away Win 33.70%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.57%
Under 2.5 41.43%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.93%
No 39.07%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.3% 12.05 12.26% 8.16 79.44% 1.26
-1.5 20.56% 4.86 — 79.44% 1.26
-1.0 20.56% 4.86 20.47% 4.89 58.97% 1.7
-0.5 41.03% 2.44 — 58.97% 1.7
0 (PK) 41.03% 2.44 24.05% 4.16 34.91% 2.86
+0.5 65.09% 1.54 — 34.91% 2.86
+1.0 65.09% 1.54 18.67% 5.36 16.25% 6.16
+1.5 83.75% 1.19 — 16.25% 6.16
+2.0 83.75% 1.19 10.2% 9.81 6.05% 16.53

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.