Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.41%
Fair Odds 2.6
Draw
26.07%
Fair Odds 3.84
Away Win
35.51%
Fair Odds 2.82
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.42% Fair Odds 8.76

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.6 —
Draw 3.84 —
Away Win 2.82 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.42% 8.76
2 2-1 8.51% 11.75
3 1-2 8.28% 12.08
4 1-0 7.88% 12.7
5 0-1 7.67% 13.05
6 2-2 6.17% 16.21
7 2-0 5.87% 17.04
8 0-2 5.56% 17.99
9 0-0 5.29% 18.92
10 3-1 4.23% 23.66
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
7.67%
13.05
5.56%
17.99
2.69%
37.23
0.97%
102.7
0.28%
354.11
1
7.88%
12.7
11.42%
8.76
8.28%
12.08
4.0%
24.99
1.45%
68.93
0.42%
237.7
2
5.87%
17.04
8.51%
11.75
6.17%
16.21
2.98%
33.54
1.08%
92.52
0.31%
318.98
3
2.91%
34.31
4.23%
23.66
3.06%
32.64
1.48%
67.53
0.54%
186.29
0.16%
642.26
4
1.09%
92.11
1.57%
63.52
1.14%
87.62
0.55%
181.29
0.2%
500.0
0.06%
1724.14
5
0.32%
309.12
0.47%
213.17
0.34%
294.03
0.16%
608.27
0.06%
1677.85
0.02%
5780.35
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.81% · Fair: 123.58
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.46% 22.54%
1.5 43.88% 56.12%
2.5 18.86% 81.14%
3.5 6.44% 93.56%
4.5 1.81% 98.19%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.48% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.41%
Draw 26.07%
Away Win 35.51%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.29%
No 40.71%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.12% 14.05 11.42% 8.76 81.47% 1.23
-1.5 18.53% 5.4 — 81.47% 1.23
-1.0 18.53% 5.4 20.07% 4.98 61.4% 1.63
-0.5 38.6% 2.59 — 61.4% 1.63
0 (PK) 38.6% 2.59 24.58% 4.07 36.82% 2.72
+0.5 63.18% 1.58 — 36.82% 2.72
+1.0 63.18% 1.58 19.53% 5.12 17.3% 5.78
+1.5 82.7% 1.21 — 17.3% 5.78
+2.0 82.7% 1.21 10.81% 9.25 6.49% 15.42

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.