Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.54%
Fair Odds 2.81
Draw
26.43%
Fair Odds 3.78
Away Win
38.04%
Fair Odds 2.63
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.67% Fair Odds 8.57

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.81 —
Draw 3.78 —
Away Win 2.63 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.67% 8.57
2 1-2 8.46% 11.81
3 2-1 8.29% 12.06
4 0-1 8.22% 12.16
5 1-0 8.05% 12.42
6 2-2 6.01% 16.64
7 0-2 5.96% 16.78
8 2-0 5.72% 17.49
9 0-0 5.67% 17.64
10 1-3 4.09% 24.44
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.67%
17.64
8.22%
12.16
5.96%
16.78
2.88%
34.71
1.04%
95.76
0.3%
330.14
1
8.05%
12.42
11.67%
8.57
8.46%
11.81
4.09%
24.44
1.48%
67.44
0.43%
232.5
2
5.72%
17.49
8.29%
12.06
6.01%
16.64
2.9%
34.43
1.05%
94.98
0.31%
327.55
3
2.71%
36.96
3.92%
25.49
2.84%
35.16
1.37%
72.74
0.5%
200.64
0.14%
692.04
4
0.96%
104.11
1.39%
71.8
1.01%
99.03
0.49%
204.88
0.18%
565.29
0.05%
1949.32
5
0.27%
366.57
0.4%
252.78
0.29%
348.68
0.14%
721.5
0.05%
1992.03
0.01%
6849.32
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.72% · Fair: 138.85
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.67% 17.64
1 16.27% 6.15
2 23.35% 4.28
3 22.34% 4.48
4 16.03% 6.24
5+ 16.34% 6.12
Over 2.5 54.71% Under 2.5 45.29%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.54%
Draw 26.43%
Away Win 38.04%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 54.71%
Under 2.5 45.29%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.04%
No 41.96%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.34% 15.77 10.8% 9.26 82.86% 1.21
-1.5 17.14% 5.83 — 82.86% 1.21
-1.0 17.14% 5.83 19.73% 5.07 63.13% 1.58
-0.5 36.87% 2.71 — 63.13% 1.58
0 (PK) 36.87% 2.71 24.92% 4.01 38.21% 2.62
+0.5 61.79% 1.62 — 38.21% 2.62
+1.0 61.79% 1.62 20.14% 4.96 18.07% 5.53
+1.5 81.93% 1.22 — 18.07% 5.53
+2.0 81.93% 1.22 11.26% 8.88 6.81% 14.69

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.