Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.85%
Fair Odds 3.04
Draw
26.93%
Fair Odds 3.71
Away Win
40.22%
Fair Odds 2.49
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.02% Fair Odds 8.32

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.04 —
Draw 3.71 —
Away Win 2.49 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.02% 8.32
2 0-1 9.18% 10.9
3 1-2 8.72% 11.47
4 1-0 8.29% 12.06
5 2-1 7.87% 12.7
6 0-2 6.65% 15.03
7 0-0 6.33% 15.8
8 2-2 5.71% 17.52
9 2-0 5.43% 18.41
10 1-3 4.21% 23.74
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.33%
15.8
9.18%
10.9
6.65%
15.03
3.22%
31.1
1.17%
85.78
0.34%
295.77
1
8.29%
12.06
12.02%
8.32
8.72%
11.47
4.21%
23.74
1.53%
65.48
0.44%
225.78
2
5.43%
18.41
7.87%
12.7
5.71%
17.52
2.76%
36.24
1.0%
99.97
0.29%
344.71
3
2.37%
42.17
3.44%
29.08
2.49%
40.11
1.2%
82.99
0.44%
228.94
0.13%
789.27
4
0.78%
128.77
1.13%
88.8
0.82%
122.49
0.39%
253.42
0.14%
699.3
0.04%
2409.64
5
0.2%
491.4
0.29%
338.98
0.21%
467.51
0.1%
967.12
0.04%
2666.67
0.01%
9174.31
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.61% · Fair: 164.07
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.02% 26.98%
1.5 37.67% 62.33%
2.5 14.52% 85.48%
3.5 4.41% 95.59%
4.5 1.1% 98.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.33% 15.80
1 17.47% 5.72
2 24.11% 4.15
3 22.18% 4.51
4 15.30% 6.53
5+ 14.61% 6.84
Over 2.5 52.1% Under 2.5 47.9%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.85%
Draw 26.93%
Away Win 40.22%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 52.1%
Under 2.5 47.9%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.89%
No 44.11%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.21% 19.21 9.8% 10.21 85.0% 1.18
-1.5 15.0% 6.66 — 85.0% 1.18
-1.0 15.0% 6.66 19.09% 5.24 65.9% 1.52
-0.5 34.1% 2.93 — 65.9% 1.52
0 (PK) 34.1% 2.93 25.42% 3.93 40.48% 2.47
+0.5 59.52% 1.68 — 40.48% 2.47
+1.0 59.52% 1.68 21.13% 4.73 19.35% 5.17
+1.5 80.65% 1.24 — 19.35% 5.17
+2.0 80.65% 1.24 12.0% 8.33 7.34% 13.62

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.