Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
26.32%
Fair Odds 3.8
Draw
27.88%
Fair Odds 3.59
Away Win
45.8%
Fair Odds 2.18
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.5% Fair Odds 8.0

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.8 —
Draw 3.59 —
Away Win 2.18 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.5% 8.0
2 0-1 11.9% 8.4
3 1-2 9.06% 11.04
4 0-2 8.63% 11.59
5 1-0 8.62% 11.6
6 0-0 8.21% 12.18
7 2-1 6.56% 15.24
8 2-2 4.76% 21.02
9 2-0 4.52% 22.1
10 1-3 4.38% 22.83
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.21%
12.18
11.9%
8.4
8.63%
11.59
4.17%
23.98
1.51%
66.14
0.44%
228.05
1
8.62%
11.6
12.5%
8.0
9.06%
11.04
4.38%
22.83
1.59%
62.99
0.46%
217.2
2
4.52%
22.1
6.56%
15.24
4.76%
21.02
2.3%
43.5
0.83%
119.99
0.24%
413.74
3
1.58%
63.14
2.3%
43.55
1.66%
60.06
0.8%
124.27
0.29%
342.82
0.08%
1182.03
4
0.42%
240.56
0.6%
165.89
0.44%
228.83
0.21%
473.48
0.08%
1305.48
0.02%
4504.5
5
0.09%
1145.48
0.13%
789.89
0.09%
1089.32
0.04%
2252.25
0.02%
6211.18
0.0%
21276.6
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.46% · Fair: 219.68
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 65.01% 34.99%
1.5 28.26% 71.74%
2.5 8.97% 91.03%
3.5 2.22% 97.78%
4.5 0.45% 99.55%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.21% 12.18
1 20.52% 4.87
2 25.65% 3.90
3 21.38% 4.68
4 13.36% 7.48
5+ 10.88% 9.19
Over 2.5 45.62% Under 2.5 54.38%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 26.32%
Draw 27.88%
Away Win 45.80%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.62%
Under 2.5 54.38%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.76%
No 50.24%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.98% 33.55 7.31% 13.69 89.71% 1.11
-1.5 10.29% 9.72 — 89.71% 1.11
-1.0 10.29% 9.72 17.07% 5.86 72.64% 1.38
-0.5 27.36% 3.66 — 72.64% 1.38
0 (PK) 27.36% 3.66 26.35% 3.8 46.29% 2.16
+0.5 53.71% 1.86 — 46.29% 2.16
+1.0 53.71% 1.86 23.58% 4.24 22.71% 4.4
+1.5 77.29% 1.29 — 22.71% 4.4
+2.0 77.29% 1.29 13.93% 7.18 8.78% 11.39

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.