Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
18.87%
Fair Odds 5.3
Draw
28.37%
Fair Odds 3.53
Away Win
52.76%
Fair Odds 1.9
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 15.91% Fair Odds 6.29

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 5.3 —
Draw 3.53 —
Away Win 1.9 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 15.91% 6.29
2 1-1 12.09% 8.27
3 0-2 11.53% 8.67
4 0-0 10.97% 9.12
5 1-2 8.76% 11.41
6 1-0 8.34% 11.99
7 0-3 5.57% 17.94
8 2-1 4.59% 21.77
9 1-3 4.24% 23.61
10 2-2 3.33% 30.03
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.97%
9.12
15.91%
6.29
11.53%
8.67
5.57%
17.94
2.02%
49.49
0.59%
170.65
1
8.34%
11.99
12.09%
8.27
8.76%
11.41
4.24%
23.61
1.54%
65.12
0.45%
224.57
2
3.17%
31.56
4.59%
21.77
3.33%
30.03
1.61%
62.12
0.58%
171.38
0.17%
591.02
3
0.8%
124.6
1.16%
85.93
0.84%
118.53
0.41%
245.22
0.15%
676.59
0.04%
2331.0
4
0.15%
655.74
0.22%
452.28
0.16%
623.83
0.08%
1290.32
0.03%
3558.72
0.01%
12345.68
5
0.02%
4310.34
0.03%
2976.19
0.02%
4098.36
0.01%
8474.58
0.0%
23255.81
0.0%
83333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.39% · Fair: 254.52
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 53.23% 46.77%
1.5 17.69% 82.31%
2.5 4.18% 95.82%
3.5 0.76% 99.24%
4.5 0.11% 99.89%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.97% 9.12
1 24.24% 4.12
2 26.79% 3.73
3 19.73% 5.07
4 10.90% 9.17
5+ 7.36% 13.59
Over 2.5 38.0% Under 2.5 62.0%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 18.87%
Draw 28.37%
Away Win 52.76%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.0%
Under 2.5 62.0%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 40.75%
No 59.25%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.27% 78.7 4.5% 22.2 94.22% 1.06
-1.5 5.78% 17.32 — 94.22% 1.06
-1.0 5.78% 17.32 13.86% 7.22 80.37% 1.24
-0.5 19.63% 5.09 — 80.37% 1.24
0 (PK) 19.63% 5.09 26.83% 3.73 53.54% 1.87
+0.5 46.46% 2.15 — 53.54% 1.87
+1.0 46.46% 2.15 26.44% 3.78 27.1% 3.69
+1.5 72.9% 1.37 — 27.1% 3.69
+2.0 72.9% 1.37 16.4% 6.1 10.71% 9.34

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.