Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.07%
Fair Odds 2.12
Draw
23.96%
Fair Odds 4.17
Away Win
28.97%
Fair Odds 3.45
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.88% Fair Odds 10.12

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.12 —
Draw 4.17 —
Away Win 3.45 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.88% 10.12
2 2-1 9.19% 10.88
3 1-2 7.11% 14.06
4 1-0 6.86% 14.58
5 2-2 6.61% 15.12
6 2-0 6.38% 15.67
7 3-1 5.7% 17.56
8 0-1 5.31% 18.83
9 3-2 4.1% 24.38
10 3-0 3.96% 25.28
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.69%
27.11
5.31%
18.83
3.82%
26.15
1.84%
54.48
0.66%
151.33
0.19%
525.49
1
6.86%
14.58
9.88%
10.12
7.11%
14.06
3.41%
29.29
1.23%
81.36
0.35%
282.49
2
6.38%
15.67
9.19%
10.88
6.61%
15.12
3.18%
31.5
1.14%
87.49
0.33%
303.77
3
3.96%
25.28
5.7%
17.56
4.1%
24.38
1.97%
50.8
0.71%
141.1
0.2%
489.96
4
1.84%
54.37
2.65%
37.75
1.91%
52.44
0.92%
109.24
0.33%
303.49
0.09%
1053.74
5
0.68%
146.16
0.99%
101.49
0.71%
140.96
0.34%
293.69
0.12%
815.66
0.04%
2832.86
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.56% · Fair: 63.92
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.43% 15.57%
1.5 55.48% 44.52%
2.5 28.55% 71.45%
3.5 11.85% 88.15%
4.5 4.09% 95.91%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.69% 27.11
1 12.17% 8.22
2 20.08% 4.98
3 22.09% 4.53
4 18.23% 5.49
5+ 23.74% 4.21
Over 2.5 64.06% Under 2.5 35.94%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.07%
Draw 23.96%
Away Win 28.97%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 64.06%
Under 2.5 35.94%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.43%
No 35.57%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.97% 8.36 14.36% 6.96 73.67% 1.36
-1.5 26.33% 3.8 — 73.67% 1.36
-1.0 26.33% 3.8 21.2% 4.72 52.47% 1.91
-0.5 47.53% 2.1 — 52.47% 1.91
0 (PK) 47.53% 2.1 22.52% 4.44 29.95% 3.34
+0.5 70.05% 1.43 — 29.95% 3.34
+1.0 70.05% 1.43 16.41% 6.09 13.54% 7.39
+1.5 86.46% 1.16 — 13.54% 7.39
+2.0 86.46% 1.16 8.61% 11.61 4.93% 20.29

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.