Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.85%
Fair Odds 2.23
Draw
24.58%
Fair Odds 4.07
Away Win
30.57%
Fair Odds 3.27
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.33% Fair Odds 9.68

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.23 —
Draw 4.07 —
Away Win 3.27 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.33% 9.68
2 2-1 9.09% 11.0
3 1-2 7.44% 13.44
4 1-0 7.17% 13.94
5 2-2 6.55% 15.28
6 2-0 6.31% 15.84
7 0-1 5.87% 17.04
8 3-1 5.33% 18.75
9 0-2 4.23% 23.66
10 0-0 4.08% 24.53
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.08%
24.53
5.87%
17.04
4.23%
23.66
2.03%
49.3
0.73%
136.93
0.21%
475.51
1
7.17%
13.94
10.33%
9.68
7.44%
13.44
3.57%
28.01
1.29%
77.8
0.37%
270.12
2
6.31%
15.84
9.09%
11.0
6.55%
15.28
3.14%
31.83
1.13%
88.41
0.33%
306.94
3
3.7%
27.0
5.33%
18.75
3.84%
26.04
1.84%
54.25
0.66%
150.69
0.19%
523.29
4
1.63%
61.36
2.35%
42.61
1.69%
59.19
0.81%
123.3
0.29%
342.47
0.08%
1189.06
5
0.57%
174.34
0.83%
121.07
0.59%
168.12
0.29%
350.26
0.1%
972.76
0.03%
3378.38
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.3% · Fair: 76.91
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.8% 17.2%
1.5 52.52% 47.48%
2.5 25.87% 74.13%
3.5 10.24% 89.76%
4.5 3.36% 96.64%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.08% 24.53
1 13.04% 7.67
2 20.87% 4.79
3 22.26% 4.49
4 17.81% 5.62
5+ 21.94% 4.56
Over 2.5 62.01% Under 2.5 37.99%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.85%
Draw 24.58%
Away Win 30.57%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 62.01%
Under 2.5 37.99%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 63.18%
No 36.82%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.57% 9.46 13.65% 7.32 75.78% 1.32
-1.5 24.22% 4.13 — 75.78% 1.32
-1.0 24.22% 4.13 21.03% 4.76 54.75% 1.83
-0.5 45.25% 2.21 — 54.75% 1.83
0 (PK) 45.25% 2.21 23.12% 4.33 31.63% 3.16
+0.5 68.37% 1.46 — 31.63% 3.16
+1.0 68.37% 1.46 17.2% 5.81 14.43% 6.93
+1.5 85.57% 1.17 — 14.43% 6.93
+2.0 85.57% 1.17 9.14% 10.94 5.28% 18.92

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.