Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.19%
Fair Odds 2.43
Draw
25.52%
Fair Odds 3.92
Away Win
33.29%
Fair Odds 3.0
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.02% Fair Odds 9.07

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.43 —
Draw 3.92 —
Away Win 3.0 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.02% 9.07
2 2-1 8.82% 11.34
3 1-2 7.94% 12.6
4 1-0 7.65% 13.07
5 0-1 6.89% 14.52
6 2-2 6.35% 15.75
7 2-0 6.12% 16.33
8 0-2 4.96% 20.16
9 0-0 4.78% 20.91
10 3-1 4.7% 21.27
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.78%
20.91
6.89%
14.52
4.96%
20.16
2.38%
42.01
0.86%
116.69
0.25%
405.19
1
7.65%
13.07
11.02%
9.07
7.94%
12.6
3.81%
26.25
1.37%
72.93
0.39%
253.23
2
6.12%
16.33
8.82%
11.34
6.35%
15.75
3.05%
32.82
1.1%
91.16
0.32%
316.56
3
3.27%
30.62
4.7%
21.27
3.39%
29.54
1.63%
61.53
0.58%
170.94
0.17%
593.47
4
1.31%
76.56
1.88%
53.17
1.35%
73.84
0.65%
153.82
0.23%
427.35
0.07%
1483.68
5
0.42%
239.23
0.6%
166.14
0.43%
230.73
0.21%
480.77
0.07%
1335.11
0.02%
4629.63
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.97% · Fair: 103.25
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.81% 20.19%
1.5 47.51% 52.49%
2.5 21.66% 78.34%
3.5 7.88% 92.12%
4.5 2.37% 97.63%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.78% 20.91
1 14.54% 6.88
2 22.10% 4.52
3 22.40% 4.46
4 17.02% 5.87
5+ 19.15% 5.22
Over 2.5 58.57% Under 2.5 41.43%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.19%
Draw 25.52%
Away Win 33.29%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.57%
Under 2.5 41.43%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.9%
No 39.1%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.48% 11.79 12.41% 8.06 79.11% 1.26
-1.5 20.89% 4.79 — 79.11% 1.26
-1.0 20.89% 4.79 20.59% 4.86 58.52% 1.71
-0.5 41.48% 2.41 — 58.52% 1.71
0 (PK) 41.48% 2.41 24.04% 4.16 34.49% 2.9
+0.5 65.51% 1.53 — 34.49% 2.9
+1.0 65.51% 1.53 18.53% 5.4 15.96% 6.27
+1.5 84.04% 1.19 — 15.96% 6.27
+2.0 84.04% 1.19 10.05% 9.95 5.91% 16.92

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.